I was wondering if any of the Tolkien luminaries here had any thoughts on what lies between the River Celduin and Mirkwood, south of the eastern end of the Old Forest Road? Is this area populated in TA2946? Perhaps sparsely with small settlements or such? It seems slightly unlikely it has been completely abandoned?

I'm asking because I wondered whether there was an option for my Fellowship to retreat to a homestead there to recover from their encounter with the Marsh Dwellers before continuing along the Old Forest Road, or whether their only option to recuperate would be to go north back to Esgaroth?

Many thanks in advance.

I reckon that it's highly likely that these plains are inhabited. Although it is written that the Northmen abandoned them after the Wainrider wars, there is evidence in Unfinished Tales to say that there were still Northmen there at the time of the Balchoth invasions.

Hopefully, you will find Tolwen's article on population and urbanisation in the next issue of Other Minds to be extremely useful. To surmise, there are people. They are a hybrid race of Northmen/Balchoth along the eaves of Mirkwood and the south bank of the Celduin and more or less pure blooded descendants of the Balchoth dwelling further south.

It is likely that there is peaceful trade between the more northerly peoples and the Northmen who dwell north of the Celduin but, they are still firmly in the camp of the Shadow.

As for numbers, don't know at present. Actual statistics are up to 1940TA at present. It's one heck of a task that Tolwen has set himself this time. I am very proud to have been asked for my input in this.

The region south of the Old Forest Road, to the east of Mirkwood, I believe is abandoned. Here is why: Their were Northmen there up until about 1800 TA, when the Wainrider's came through. The Easterlings pushed the Northmen away (north, west through Mirkwood, and south).

When the hordes were crushed in 2510TA, in northern Rohan (what would be later called Rohan), there is nothing written more about that region. The Wainriders were crushed and driven away, the Northmen settled in Rohan and in the Vales of the Anduin. And the Necromancer rose again in southern Mirkwood.

The East Bight region was a vast grassy plain, best suited to horse-nomad types. With the Easterlings driven back, and the Rohirrim settled in Rohan, there was no culture left to inhabit that region. Also, being so close to Dol Guildor made the area dangerous. Remember, Sauron was quietly rebuilding Mordor, so I iimagine there would be a fair amount of Orc and evil Man traffic between the two--right through that region.

Just my thoughts.

I'd say that's a possibility. Even *if* the area is largely unpopulated there are always exceptions to such things. Also, you could just use an abandoned stead as well if you didn't want to introduce any people to the area. I personally don't see the harm at all - if your scout succeeds at an Explore test to find housing/shelter. Bob's your uncle*.

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* This last bit may not be true.

I've wished for a write up on this areatoo...

Up till now personaly I never liked the idea of the whole region being competely depopulated in the time frame of this game. I do like the idea that over past several hundred years a mix of peoples would have gradually repopulated these areas even if they are still struggling and have no kingdoms or unity. As noted this could be viewed as a dangerous area due to proximity to Mordor, mirkwood, and the realms of the easterlings which might explain perhaps why no real power has thrived here.... I like the idea that it is more used by nomadic pepoles or those paying tribute to powers further east with no real cities, and no great wealth. That is how I've used it to date....

so your ideas work in my opinion.

My campaign saw the fellowship travel down the Celduin to the where it converges with the other river just before Dorwinion.

I have written my plans with notions that there are Riders of Rhovanion still nomadically present - albeit in very small numbers.

I think I lifted some of these notions from Halbarad who created/presented his own take on these riders.

Mix in descendants of the Balcholths etc and you can have a melting pot of nomadic tribal peoples spread all over the place in small numbers. More so South of the river after it heads east.

Mostly in a grassy and low-hill plains.

You guys are awesome! Many thanks, that's all really useful stuff.

@Halbarad - That's really helpful as always and thanks for the pointer at the Other Minds article. It does indeed sound really interesting and I shall have to look out for it, particularly given that it's Tolwen and you working on it! Thanks for surmising some details for me in the interim as I doubt the next issue is due before my next session!

@ThrorII - That all makes sense. I was kind of imagining that your description is the overall situation but, along the lines of what Halbarad and Cynan have said, although there is no organised culture as such, if you look closer there are a combination of scattered remnants of earlier peoples and other "settlers" or nomads who have moved into the area. So it's not entirely unpopulated.

@Rich H - Eminently sensible as always Rich, a ruin is a great alternative and as you say there are always exceptions.

Bill, Keven and Allan are my uncles

@Cynan - Yeah. I think that's going to be how I portray it. Many thanks

There are inconsistencies dotted throughout the canon on the situation with this region. At the end of the Wainrider war we are led to believe that the Northmen have abandoned the plains of Rhovanion. Yet, in the very same chapter, Tolkien refers to the Balchoth driving(related) remnants of the Northmen up the River Running and into the forest(Mirkwood).
Reading the chapter more closely, it is clear IMO that the Northman uprising against the Wainriders was an abject failure. If the Wainriders had been driven out then we need to ask why the Northmen did not return to the plains that they called home. It is reasonable to assume that the Wainriders remained there in numbers enough to be a deterrent, despite their defeat by Gondor.
The Balchoth tide was turned at Parth Celebrant but Eorl the Young was killed in a further skirmish with them many years later. It's reasonable to assume IMO, that they too had settled in the old lands of the Rhovanic Northmen from where they were launching raids against the Eotheod. I also think it's far too unlikely that there were absolutely no Northmen or Wainrider descendants remaining in the region, despite the brutality of the Balchoth.

Of course, these are only my opinions and YMEMV.

And as far as I can tell - some descendents of the the Riders who populated the region and who eventually most migrated to what is now Rohan would still have pockets therein, as well.

Perhaps now mingled with those Hal mentioned.

It's as Halbarad says. I'm working hard to proceed further, but there are always new points or views that necessitate some changes in previous - already established - periods, making progress slower. Combine this with RL, and you're in for trouble

I do my best to proceed as quick as possible though

Cheers
Tolwen

I'm liking this "melting-pot of small numbers of different peoples" that you guys are describing. It sounds like a really interesting region now.

Good luck with the article Tolwen. I look forward to reading it when you finish.

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts everyone. You've all been really helpful.

Aye.

I liken it to the various people in/around the germanic tribes: Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Thervingi, Greuthungi, Taifals, Gepids, and you had peoples like Dacians, Thracians, Huns, Vandals, Scythians, Sarmations,

Or the various greek peoples: macedonian, Thessalonians, spartans, trojans,

Or the various peoples in/around the Philistines - lots and lots of various tribal civilizations around Israel during the Old Testament time.


Eventually - they all kind of melt and blend together - its hard to really distinctly know one from the other - unless you're an archaeologist.

I do agree that if anyone is in southern Rhovanion, east of Mirkwood, it would be small groups of people, in nomadic or semi-nomadic bands. I could easily see a mongrel mix of Balchoth and Northmen--perhaps distantly related to the Men of Dorwinion.

It is a staple of Tolkien, however, of desolated lands devoid of people for centuries: Eriador, Ithilien, The Vales of the Anduin after Sauron's 2nd Age War against Celebrimbor, The Battle Plain (Dagorlad), and others.

I always kind of assumed that the region south of the Celduin, east of Mirkwood to Rhun, and north of the Ash Mountains was desolate. This was primarily formulated through Tolkiens writings on the history of the Rohirrim, the presence of Dol Guildur, Sam and Frodo's march through the Battle Plain, and the fact that When Sauron attacked Dale and Erebor, there seemed to be no resistance between Mordor and them. However, small groups of itinerate or semi-nomadic mongrel people does not invalidate that view.

Given how water affects Populations, they would probably be closer to the Celduin than Dagorlad--allowing some trade with Esgaroth boatmen.

Before you get all the way down to Dagorlad you have the Brown Lands, which are described as a wasteland during the fellowship's journey down the Anduin. I can see a swathe of land south of the Celduin, down in to the East Bight and across in to Dorwinion, as habitable and sparsely populated (scattered independent homesteads) but the closer you get to the south of Mirkwood, and toward Mordor, the quality of the land will degrade. There'll be a band of land north of Mordor, following the Ered Lithui, that will be unsuitable for settlement. Fit only for roving bands of orcs.

Hi Thror,

It is a common enough opinion that the region would be abandoned, given the themes you mention. I too was of the same opinion prior to my correspondence with Tolwen on the Other Minds article.
However, I don't believe that Tolkien ever says 'categorically' that this region is abandoned and that, along with the little evidence that is hidden within the opus, is where Tolwen has convinced me of it's habitation.
As per my previous post, we have a potential contradiction in the abandonment of Rhovanion by the Northmen. The uprising failed against the Wainriders and despite their military defeat by Gondor, the Northmen of Marwhini's people never returned to their homes.
In 2510, the Steward hopes to gain the aid of the Eotheod by sending him a message regarding the ethic cleansing of the River Running region by the Balchoth, stating that the people there are related to the Eotheod.
This results in the ride of the Eotheod and the defeat of the Balchoth at Parth Celebrant. Yet there is still fighting many years later when Eorl is slain in a nameless skirmish.

Probably because of the legacy of Merp, there is a notion that the Wainriders, the Balchoth and assorted other Easterlings are nomads in the Hunnic style. The evidence suggests that they were mainly foot soldiers. At the battle of the camp, a report is made I a larger than expected force of horsemen being with the Wainrider army. This suggests that the Gondorians believed they would be facing an army of infantry with chariot borne champions and chieftains.

Likewise, the Balchoth are described as numerous but poorly equipped foot soldiers. It is my opinion that these two massive groups are not inclined to a Nomadic lifestyle, but are migrating sedentary peoples.

The actual nomadic cultures on the plains of Rhovanion were the Northmen of the Ehwathrumi and even they are really semi nomadic. It is conceivable that an Easterling Nomadic Culture may have developed to some degree. If so, it is most likely to have arisen among a further, as yet unrealised, Easterling group. The Wainrider and Balchoth Easterlings would probably have had to learn animal husbandry from the indigenous Northmen of Rhovanion.

I believe that a 'ranching' culture is much more likely to evolve from this meeting of subsistence agriculturalists and a semi nomadic, livestock based, culture rather than a reversion to a purely Nomadic lifestyle.

Exactly how organised these Balchoth successor principalities are in 2946, I'm still not sure. Those closest to the Celduin and Mirkwood have absorbed some Northman culture, whereas those further south and east are more hidebound and stuck in the old ways. I am envisioning fortified villages with Warlords dominating largish areas that are quite sparsely populated. No cities as such, except perhaps south of the Sea of Rhun where the population is larger. Tolwen may have other ideas though....

This thread is a fascinating read. I'm looking forward to Tolwen's article.

I'm imagining a region with a small scattered population, with little central authority and lots of shifting alliances, treaties, skirmishes and raids.

This region could be ripe for adventure. Agents of the Shadow whispering in the ears of warlords to cause distrust. Imagine Rohan but without a King, without a unified culture, and without a common cause.

That's an interesting hypothesis. Do you know of any supporting evidence for this?

Cheers
Tolwen

Ered Lithui means Ash mountains iirc. Something about ash from Mt Doom. So much ash that Mordor is a dust choked waste. North of the mountains I would suggest that a little volcanic ash goes a long way to make the northern foothills very fertile and eminently suitable for settlement. The only problem would be it's proximity to the Back Gate. Not so much of an issue for Easterlings such as the Balchoth descendants though.

Hhmm. It seems a bit vague to me - thus my question for something tangible. Ithilien lies on Mordor's border and in a comparable distance to Mt. Doom and having the Ephel Dúath (Mountains of Shadow) as boundary doesn't sound that better.
And still despite the close proximity to Sauron's heartland Ithilien was considered the garden of Gondor for milennia and retained a wild beauty even after Sauron gained control of the land - as testfied by Frodo's and Sam's impressions of the land. Thus proximity to Mordor's borders is IMO not a reason per se for a land to be barren and/or inhospitable. For Dagorlad and the Dead Marshes we have some special evidence, but for the northern part of the Ered Lithui I can't see a comparable reason. Quite to the contrary - the mountains might even be seen as an effective barrier between the normal lands of Rhovanion and the blighted parts of Mordor (Gorgoroth). And it was in Sauron's interest to have a reliable route for supplies and reinforcements for his armies from this region.

In this context we have to remember that from all of Mordor, only Gorgoroth was an inhospitable wasteland. For the Nurnen area we have positive evidence that it was the breadbasket of these infertile areas. The northern parts of Mordor east of the plateau of Gorgoroth (which is only a part of Mordor) are IMO more likely normal, even if harsh lands.

Cheers
Tolwen

I think that we are actually in agreement Tolwen.

My reference to proximity to the Black Gate is regards the TOR default period of 2946 (and after). I agree that in earlier periods, especially those with Sauron in absentia, that non shadow aligned people could easily have been found on the northern edge of Ered Lithui.

Ithilien has no residents in this period(not counting Rangers),despite it's beauty and fertility, due to it's proximity to Mordor. It's reasonable to assume that any settlers along the Ered Lithui are going to be aligned with Sauron for those same reasons and the fact that there are no Rangers to discourage Southron or Easterling settlers.

I wouldn't doubt that

Especially in this area (along the Ered Lithui) and when Sauron is again in Mordor (and shortly before declaring himself; the TOR timeframe), he is very interested in a secure and reliable line of communication and travel along the northern edge of the Ered Lithui. This is most easily accomplished with at least a sparse population to provide services and infrastructure to troops moving on this route.

Absolutely. Any people living in southern Rhovanion in the mid-30th century are almost certainly people under Sauron's sway (whether they know it or not; but most likely the former). The depopulation of Ithilien is not directly due the proximity of Mordor. Sauron waged several campaigns to gain military control of the land. The last and hardy of the Ithilians flee in TA 2954, so in TOR's time, a few tough frontiersmen can be expected to still reside here, but IMO most likely in the parts close to the Anduin. The Rangers went in - as you say - to get intelligence of Sauron's movements in the area and wage a guerilla war and at least keep Gondor's claim on the land alive.

I'd say that Sauron by this time does not plan to settle Ithilien with this subjects, but is content with the control of the roads for his troop movements. We have to remember that he actually has already a secure foothold in Ithilien with Minas Morgul. After his victory, things might look other of course

Cheers
Tolwen

Only that the Brown Lands, Dagorlad and Dead Marshes areas were all described as desolate. It also makes sense. With the amount of ash being spewed from Mount Doom, as Halbarad says: that Gogoroth is "a dust choked waste". The prevailing winds would be from the west (westerlies keeping Ithilien clear of ash fall) and the ash would carry over the Ash Mountains (hence probably their name) to the lands beyond. Once settles, Halbarad is correct, the land would be fertile, so the lands nearer the mountains on the Sea of Rhun and the Rhun area (Dorwinion included) would be very fertile land (leading to good wine). However, lands closer to the Ered Luin would be ash-choked, with frequent falls of ash killing off all but a few hardy plants. Hence would be desolate and generally unsuitable for settlement (nomadic herding, yes, but not settlement). More a geological / ecological argument than a literary one.

You guys figure this out and let me know who wins. :-)

Until then, my Emyn Muil and Dagorlad will be depopulated wasteland, my Brown Lands will be nomadic country, a little scary but more or less like a semi-arid area, i envision Western Texas. As one goes further North to the Celduin, things become more populated, though no great cities and more hospitable. On the other side of Celduin farms and homesteads in increasing numbers until you reach Long Lake.

I too, have always felt a sense of desolation and loneliness when thinking about those areas...barren, forgotten, lost. It has the same aggorophonic, kind of spooky feeling as when you're driving through New Mexico.

Here I'd like to point out two other points. One textual and one geological / ecological.

First, we hear from Orodruin on a few occasions. In the Sil77 and Appendix B eruptions are especially stressed - and these concur with renewed activity of the Dark Lord: When he returns to Mordor after the Akallabêth and after he declares himself in TA 2954. This latter is also the occasion when the last inhabitants flee Ithilien. Apart from this, there is no evidence of volcanic activity. This lack of evidence is no evidence in itself of course. The attendant circumstances are telling though and it has been surmised that Sauron and the volcano are linked: When Sauron is weak or absent, the Orodruin is dormant and breaks out once the Dark Lord is at home, telling every foe nearby he is in trouble
And of course Sauron has power over it, being able to direct its activity to some degree. That said, it is IMHO not so unlikely that the Orodruin is dormant for almost the entire Third Age and is unavailable as the the cause for large amounts of ash being distributed in southern Rhovanion on a regular and vast basis.

The second point is about the likely scale we are talking about. We only have one volcano - the Orodruin - available. The waste of Gorgoroth is very likely partially attributable to the volcano itself, but to another - and IMHO larger - part due to the Secondary world influence of the Dark Lord. Just as the presence of the Noldor in eregion left a positive imprint on the landscape, Sauron's milennia-long presence there has left a similar - negative - imprint. And beyond that, we are talking about really large swaths of land, and Orodruin would have to be almost constantly active on a high level to provide the vast amounts of ash necessary to transform the land that way. As discussed above, this seems relative unlikely IMHO, as eruptions are especially stressed in the chronicles and it sounds like something extraorinary and not like a regular event. The terminus of Ered Lithui (As Mountains) could have been coined during an active period of Orodruin (e.g. during the Last Alliance), when it caused some temporary - and certainly impressive - ash clouds beyond these mountains. There is no need for constant ash clouds choking the area. The term Mount Doom was likewise coined after Sauron's return from the Akallabêth and it stuck for three milennia with really long periods of Sauron's absence there (in fact much longer than his presence in the Third Age).

A short and violent eruption that causes widespread, but local destruction or choking ash (compare Mt. Vesuvius and Pompeii/Herculaneum) is sufficient for naming. Any survivors and witnesses would quickly have an appropriate name handy. The Etna is another example for an active volcano which does not hinder men living nearby and - relatively - rich flora and fauna to grow there. The local damage during an eruption can and will be devastating, but it remains local and temporary.

Another geological point is that a volcanic eruption is - in a human temporal scale - something happening in wide temporal gaps of hundreds or thousands years. Smaller ones are more frequent, but really large ones spaced wide apart, since the pressure needs to build up a long time for this. IMO this alone maks it very unlikely that Orodruin pours amounts of ash comparable to a Plinian eruption (or like the Eyjafjallajökull 2010) every few years.
This less frequent major acitivity also ties in very good with Toolkien's descriptions of Orodruin's major activity as described above.

You are absolutely right though that Dagorlad, the Dead Marshes and the Brown Lands should be almost unsettled lands during the Third Age, since we have multiple evidence for this (and not only the limited timeframe of the Hobbit and LotR eras).

Cheers
Tolwen

Etna is not an ash producing volcano. It produces a lot of lava flows, but rarely does it produce ash plumes. You are correct that pyroclastic style explosive events, such as the Plinian explosion of Vesuvius (79AD) and Mount St Helens are short-term events. However, other volcanoes churn out ash over long periods of time. A real-world example would be the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat, which regularly expelled ash falls in to the atmosphere during period of Dec 2006 to Dec 2010. The exclusion zone is still in place and towns are still abandoned, including the capital Plymouth. From descriptions in the Lord of the Rings, I picture Orodruin followed this same model, regularly expelling ash fall in to the air, then the prevailing winds would carry the ash over the region specified. Basically, the region discussed is in the fallout zone for the volcano. The further from the mountains, the less the effect of frequent ash fall smothering all but the most hardy of vegetation. Granted, the descriptions are during a very active period - the War of the Ring, and the volcano may be dormant and the effect lessened until 2954.

Good real-world points, though the main point remains. We are talking about milennia of high-level activity to achieve these constant outputs - from one volcano covering tens of thousands of square kilometers with so much ash that it has a detrimental effect on the ecosystems. In the decades around high activity of Orodruin the comparisons might apply, but not during the vast periods of dormancy suggested by the chronicles. Useful as real-world models are, we also have always to find the links to the textual evidence in the Tolkien corpus. Without them, these models are even more hypothetic (textual evidence is often scarce enough that even with it, it becomes difficult).
And here comes in the connection of Sauron with the mountain and the implied long dormancy during Sauron's absence from Mordor. Conspicuous activity is only recorded in context with Sauron's activity.
For the late period of 2954+, a higher ash output could be surmised, but ironically it was also the period when Sauron would least have wished for it, since he was rebuilding his strength and a barren northern Ered Lithui would have been very contraproductive. Given Sauron's control over the mountain, he would have restrained it to activity that served - and not hindered - him.

Cheers
Tolwen

Picture example of how I view the region.

Ah, yes ... mmm-hmmm ... I see ....
I have nothing to add, but I'm glad Fictionaut asked this question!
Oh, the possibilities!

It's amazing what one can learn playing a RPG these days.


DEAN of University: So what was it that lead you to the realization you wanted to become a geologist?
Student: Oh, well.....this roleplaying game I played last year that was set in Middle-earth.
DEAN: Come again?!?
Student: Mount Doom.....you know.....Orodruin.....the link it had with Sauron when he is powerful.....the effects it had on the surrounding territories in regards to cultural migrations and populations and such during the second and third age. Fascinating isn't it?!?
DEAN: Huh?

It's a hard one to call. I suppose that I believe the Ered Lthui forms a physical barrier against the worst of the ash fallout and that Valarians fertile region(on the map) extends right to their norhern foothills.
Do we know for definate how the prevailing winds blow in the region? Westerlys seem a reasonable bet given the situation with Ithilien, but a nor westerly might be equally possible.

I'm saying westerlies as Middle-earth is supposed to be in the north of Arda (roughly analogous to Europe). The winds would come off the sea and be channelled along the mountains or set up wave forms over them. I would imagine that sea winds would come in through the Bay of Belfalas, over South Ithilien and Lebennin. Those are the winds that I can see blowing the ash fall toward Rhun.

+1

+1

Oh and, repeating myself from much earlier in the thread...

This is a small excerpt from Karen Wynne Fonstad's Atlas of Middle Earth.

'Twisted birches clung to the rocks in the eastern Emyn Muil, and thorn thickets grew in the valley between the Ephel Duath and the Morkai, thanks to the blighting east winds of Mordor.'

She provides several reference points. TT 211 , RotK 194 and 198.

Her climate map on page 183 shows an East wind blowing from Mordor.

Unfortunately, my trilogy books are in storage pending a further house move and so I cannot verify the references above.