I'm running The One Ring these days (and loving it), and working with the Mirkwood-centric focus of the game has lead me to wonder about just how many people live in various settlements. The sources talk about how the area was heavily depopulated by a plague and centuries of conflict with the forces of the Shadow. The One Ring indicates that in the five years since the Battle of Five Armies, people have been returning to the area and Beorn has begun to embrace a following.

So, as I'm planning a sandboxish approach to the game, I'm looking at the various culture groups and settlements and trying to guesstimate populations. Here's what I'm working with. The figures do not include children, and 25% of the number would be older adults.

Dale
Dale 300
Daleland Farmsteads and Villages 500

Dwarves of Erebor 300

Dwarves of the Iron Hills 500

[B]Elves of the Woodland Realm 500

[B]Esgaroth
Lake Town 250
Surrounding the Lake 250

Beorn 300 (mostly in farmsteads surrounding Beorn's house)

Woodman
Woodman Hall 400
Woodman Town 250
Mountain Hall 250
Rhosgobel 100
West Anduin Vales Farmsteads and Villages 300
East Anduin Vale Farmsteads and Villages 500

I'm thinking that individual farmsteads might have up to 10 adults, hamlets 25 or so, and villages 50. Again, children might double those figures.

I'm still just toying with theses numbers. I'm what your estimates would be and why. Also, I'm sure I'm not the only one who's wondered about this, so if you know of internet resources that have their own estimates, please share!

I experimented with some numbers for the Dunedain in the Angle for another project I was working on. I used as my starting figure how many men they could muster for war and then built off of that. I figured that military forces would be about 10% of the population in "peace time" and then expandable in war. Male population I broke down into thirds, young, prime, older. With the war time numbers taking a few from both ends of the spectrum. Using the 28 Rangers of the Grey Company as a reference I came up with the following.

Dunedain Population
Total Population: 1,607
Male: 842
Female: 765

Warband: 120
Lords: 14
Rangers: 76
Men at Arms: 30

Dunedain Levy:
Able Bodied Men: 250 (241 service age men)


War of Ring Dispositions

Defense of the Angle
Lords: 6
Men at Arms: 30
Rangers: 26
Levy as required: 250

Rivendell Defense
Lords: 6
Rangers: 25

North Downs Patrol
Lords: 1
Rangers: 15

South Downs Patrol
Lords: 1
Rangers: 10

(Chybesia of Harn Kings domain used as a small pop refrence:
total acres: 37270
Households: 643
The Rangers at the Angle would have been those that rode out
with halbarad to Aragorn's aid. 28 in total and the sons of elrond
Lords: Those of the Noble House of Arnor
Rangers: Lesser families of Arnor
Men at arms: Local guard of the Angle heavier armed.

Codex,
AS for your numbers I think the Elves population would need to be higher in order to maintain the borders of their realm. Also the Dwarven numbers are a bit low as well. If I remember correctly Dain brought about 500 dwarves to the battle of Five Armies. If Dwarven sex rates are say 60% male and 40% female and Dain brought half of his available dwarf power to the battle then the population in the Iron Hills before the battle would need to be around 3,000 or so. Some of these dwarves would move to Erebor and Dwarves from Durin's folk across Middle-earth would come to the re-established Kingdom. My guess would be, and this is all just rough estimate, that Erebor would have around 4,000 dwarves and the Iron Hills 1,500-2,000.

This article has MUCH larger numbers than your estimates. http://www.sf-worlds.com/middle-earth/midd...opulations.html

I'm not sure about 20,000 people in Laketown and Dale but I guess you could figure 3/4 or more of them are farmers, herdsmen, woodsmen, fishermen, etc. who don't dwell in the actual towns.

WOW, I think those numbers are way to high. 200,000 hobbits is a bit insane.

Wow, that's a lot...

The professional and semi-professional warriors of pre-Norman England were between 2-5% of the population, with 8-10% comprising the levy of the Great Fyrd. I'm going off a number of sources... here's one interesting analysis: http://www.angelfire.com/mb2/battle_hastin.../note36_64.html

I'd err on the side of higher percentages given the inborn skills of the Dunedain and their isolation -

If 5% are Rangers, then the 30 spared for the Grey Company come from a population of 600.

If 10% are Rangers, we're talking 300 people.

Here's an essay on the topic, in terms of Eriador: http://fanmodules.free.fr/Lands%20of%20the...n%20Eriador.pdf

It's based on MERP geography, but the assumptions about the numbers and population are based on canon. He suggests 3,500 for the Dunedain - which is double your numbers, and quite a bit more than my own. But it strikes me that a community of over three thousand would not remain secret for long, at least without elf-magic. He posits 15-20,000 hobbits in the Shire.

Bree is presumably smaller than Lake-town (and environs), but maybe the same size as Dale - here, it's 2,300 people. I'd guess about 1,000 people for many of the main settlements in Wilderland ranging up to 3,000 for the more prosperous. These numbers include outlying farms and villages.

Jeff,
the entire military force of the Dunedain do not need to be Rangers. There maybe other elements as well. In my figures I accounted for the Rangers being those who wandered around Eriador and stood watch over the Shire. As well as a small force dedicated to protecting the environs of the Angle as well. In regard to the levy of the Dunedain I assumed that a larger portion if not all of the adult males capable of bearing arms would do so if the Angle itself were threatened so the levy would be a lot higher than Anglo-Saxon freemen levies percentage wise. Which leads to a smaller population but a more militarized one. So I agree with the inborn skills of the Dunedain element you put forward.

Codex, I think that the figures that you give for the named settlements seem about right for 2946. I agree with Telcontar,however, that you need to up those numbers of Elves and Dwarves quite substantially. At the battle of the five armies, Thranduil has at least 1000 spearmen as well as an undisclosed number of bowmen. I would estimate a total force of perhaps 1500-1800.
A total Elven population of roughly 5000 would seem reasonable to me. I have always had the impression that the Elves could field higher numbers of warriors per head of population to make up for their lack of numbers in total.(does that make sense?)
I also have the impression that this battle was a close run thing and that while it was not quite pyrrhic, there were substantial numbers of casualties among the free folk. If playing in 2946 this is something that needs to be factored in.
I think that your numbers for people not dwelling at major settlements needs revision as well. Pre industrial society tended to have most of it's population existing to support the main settlements through agriculture etc. I think that Laketown probably has a population of 250 but that the other men of the Long Lake probably number closer to 2000 rather than another 250.
I do think you have got Dale absolutely right, at least in 2946.by the time of the war of the ring and the return of the Dalish diaspora in 3019, I reckon that 10,000+ is not entirely unbelievable.

You all have made some insightful posts concerning the demographics. A couple of quick points that may help:

1. A number of people on other posts have discussed the MERP periodical Other Minds, & they have some great articles that address these issues, such as the numbers & spatial distribution of the Dúnedain.

Some people agree with you concerning the Angle of Rhudaur, for example.

Issues 11, 12, 33, & 34 immediately come to mind.

2. Concerning troop strengths vs. population, military historians consistently note that during the past century or so, modern armed forces equate a total of one servicemember per ten people, or one division per 1,000,000, for example.

Early Medieval Northern European socities (the good professor appears to have been the ideal translator of these ancient manuscripts like the Red Book of Westmarch, because of his specialization in these early Medieval languages & such), usually fielded warbands, levies like the Anglo-Saxon Fyrd, & so forth, & these normally comprised even fewer cross-sections of the people, largely because of the cost of sustaining them & because of the labor-intensive economies (simply surviving proved daunting).

Thus, you're all on the right track - Halbarad, your comments on the Battle of the Five Armies are correct, though you might want to raise the total numbers of people just a tad .

One of my favourite themes!

As the author of the PDF about the demographics in Eriador, I may add a word or two. The piece was written about ten years ago, and it needs an update. It is plannd to have this update included in the next Issue of Other Minds Magazine. Even more so than the current version, it will discuss all the relevant quotes in great detail before applying numbers to the various realms and regions.

Complementary to this piece, a similar treatment of Gondor has already progressed quite far (perhaps for Issue #14). In addition, it might be a good idea to use the same rules and techniques for applying numbers to the western rhovanic peoples (excluding the much more elusive Easterlings). It is all the more a good idea since TOR is set in this area.

Best
Tolwen

Nice one Tolwen, I think that an essay and figures for Rhovanion would be a fantastic idea, given it's importance in the new game...
Is the revised Eriador much different?

Hi Mim, which numbers of people is it that you reckon need further adjusting?

Yes, there are substantial changes.

First, the old version only looks at the realms globally. This is of course a rough grid (if you know what I mean). The new version will look at sub-divisions of the realms similar to the situation in Gondor (Anórien, Lebennin, Belfalas etc.). Of course the borders of most of these sub-divisions are hypothetical (that there were such divisions is out of the question), but that's something we have to accept if we delve into these kind of things.

Second, the old version does not recognize the changing size of the various realms over time. In the current version, the numbers are calculated from static borders throughout the age.

Lastly, it does not recognize that all realms have regions with higher population densities and ones with lower ones. To account for this, I plan to represent this by two types shading for each (sub-) realm. One could make this even finer grained, but IMO for our purposes it is a good balance between detail and ease of use in a fictitious world

Best
Tolwen

Sounds excellent Tolwen. I always like my Middle Earth to be internally consistent, even if it is, entirely, fictitious.
I look forward to your work....

Halbarad,

You've been making some great posts on here - please keep them coming.

I've been mulling over your conclusions, & agree with your concerning Thranduil's host comprising perhaps 1,500-1,800 Wood Elves, however, you might want to consider pushing the totals beyond 5,000.

My reasoning: He would have left a garrison or two behind, such as his halls, a watch post or two along the path, perhaps another to monitor the Emyn-nu-Fuin, and so forth. Most of these would only have numbered a few dozen Elves at the most, bearing in mind reliefs for the different watches & such. In addition, we don't know how many Raft-elves lived at their 'huts,' though probably a very small number, obviously .

Thus, if you're averaging out the warriors to include additional maidens & children (we can presume that because they're Elves, they won't have the extra numbers of infirmed & aged as we encounter with Men), then perhaps 5,500-6,000?

I'd say ditto for the reasoning concerning the Dwarves, Lakemen, Dalemen, etc.

Tolwen,
I cant wait to see the revision of the article! There have been huge leaps in medieval studies in the past ten years as well so the models that we based our assumptions on in the past have changed as well.

Hey there Mim.
Dain Ironfoot brought 500 warriors to the Lonely Mountain and the general consensus seems to be that he brought roughly half of his available forces. Now, I don't have my copy of The Hobbit to hand but I think that Thranduil's force was primarily coming to the aid of survivors of Smaug's attack on Laketown.
He couldn't possibly be aware that he was going to be brought to battle by Bolg and thus he would have left substantial forces to defend his realm. I am now given to thinking that the Elvish force at the battle was certainly no more than half of the entire Woodland host. Thus I am thinking perhaps 3-3500 warriors in total out of a population of nearly 10,000.does that sound like too many?

You raise a solid point about Bolg & his host gaining the element of surprise.

Perhaps we should consider additional numbers of the Free-peoples remaining behind in Mirkwood & the Emyn Engrin, though 10,000 for the former sounds a bit high?

Tolwen notes the improvements in Medieval demographic studies, & I'd say you guys are on the right track.

BTW, I'd like to read your final numbers on down the road (I realize it's a lot of work for you), if you post them when you finish.

Well, I plan to use the same formula as in the old version for calculating populations. IMO it is detailed and fair enough. It provides enough detail and influences and still remains manageable.
What will change is the basis upon which the formula is applied. this base will be be finer-grained and more thoroughly worked out.


Concerning Wilderland numbers, I support Halbarad. No one of the Free Peoples' was prepared or planning to fight a major orc-host. Therefore they brought those numbers deemed sufficient for the job - and available.

For the elven numbers, we have to factor in that for such a mission, Thranduil will hardly have left his realm without adequate protection, given the Elves' still belaguered position with Dol Guldur and its Evils pushing from the South.
Therefore, I'd make his host at Five armies at most a third of his armed forces. Reckoning what he was expecting, this would already be a lot. Extrapolating from this on "civilians" (not as much as for men of course) and women/children (not much of the latter for Elves probably), about 15.000 Elves in Northern Mirkwood seem a fair and conservative estimate for me. Remember, in this case Thranduil would lead already 10% of his whole people on a mission where the Elves themselves (talking of their personal interests) are not directly affected. It is testimony to Thranduil's farsight to risk/move so many of his people into mannish affairs. He could have simply sat on his throne and wait for the dwarves and men to manage their own troubles. At least that's the way elves often have acted, leaving dwarven and mannish conflicts to these people.

Thus Thranduil's willingness to become involved at all is quite noteworthy in a positive way.

Best
Tolwen

The numbers of men who follow Bard to the Lonely mountain is another question. Karen Wynn Fonstad suggests that his forces are unlikely to have exceeded a few hundred men and I think that that seems fairly justified.
There are various numbers that have been given for the population of Laketown. I like to think that roughly 500 people call it home and that there are fishing villages on the south eastern shore of the lake as well as farmsteads stretching back into the hinterland to the east. A total population of 3000 Feels about right to me. Fully three quarters of these(maybe slightly more) would be Lakemen and the rest would be descended from the Dalefolk. As I have posted elsewhere, I think that the vast majority of the Dalefolk who fled it's ruination are now dwelling in the valley of the River Running.
At most, I can see there being 600 men capable of bearing arms in the entire region and fewer than 100 of those would be actual warriors (mainly bowmen from the Laketown companys). I imagine the remainder to be a levied militia.
Was Smaug on a killing spree when he attacked Laketown, or was he just trying to burn the town?
Given that it is six(?) days after the death of Smaug that the combined army of Thranduil and Bard set out for Erebor there has been time to raise the local levy.
Thranduil leaves a small portion of his host to aid in the reconstruction and I would imagine that the least useful of Bard's men are left behind as well.
I think that A combined force of 2000 men and elves sounds reasonable. Any thoughts?

I think you could maybe squeeze a few more people into Esgaroth. But a figure of between 500 and 1000 feels about right to me. Any fewer than 500 and I can't really see it as a thriving centre of trade.

I think there's definitely a danger in extrapolating from the relatively peaceful, well organised lands of (say) medieval England to the rather unstable setting of Eriador. I think of most of it as being akin to a disputed borderland, a lawless frontier with pockets of order and sanity that can be invaded at any time with little notice. The Shire seems to be almost the sole exception to this rule, with perhaps parts of the far west qualifying, though we don't hear much about them.

1000 elvish warband and a total esgoroth population of 3000 sounds about right to me

Maybe the Borders region - southern Scotland - during the early Middle Ages - would be a better analogy.

I quite agree, that's how I think about it. Or even earlier indeed. Anyone know of any good resources on the area north of Carlisle (say) round about 800-1100 that we might be able to cannibalise? Most of the history I know of seems focused elsewhere.

Hmm, doing a quick search brings back plenty of stuff on the actions of the reivers but very little on the local population numbers. Fewer than other regions of Tudor England can be assumed. The construction in the region is interesting though, the Bastle houses and Pele towers built in defence. I think in isolated settlements, you'd see these or Broch towers as a last defence against an Orc raid or disagreements with the neighbours.

The population of Dwarves in Erebor and the Iron hills was briefly touched upon by Telcontar in an earlier post on this subject.
While reading Appendix A, it occurred to me that the ratio of males to females might have to be revised.
The War of the Orcs and Dwarves lasted for six years and is within living memory of many of the venerables elders of Dwarf society. It is my belief that such umbrage was taken by the Dwarves at the insult by Azog that as many as 75-80% of the available warriors would have left their halls to join the muster(or at least, those from the House of Durin would).
After the battle of Azanulbizar barely half of the host remained alive or capable of being healed. Given that the Dwarves had already sacked all the Orc fortresses from Gundabad to Gladden I think that it is entirely possibly that as much as 3/5 of the Dwarf host was lost in the war. Truly, a pyrrhic victory which probably would have been more costly had many of the Orcs not fled before them (and stayed to defend their fortresses).
It has always been my thought that necessity has made all Dwarf adult males into warriors as well as craftsmen. Losing this many of the adult male population is bound to have had a huge effect and females may even have formed a small majority in the immediate aftermath of the war.
Given the general perceptions that dwarves are a diminishing people and that birthing numbers are low, it is entirely likely that numbers of males and females are roughly equal in 2941 and that following the Battle of Five Armies, that the numbers are slightly skewed in favour of females again.
So, assuming that Dain's 500 dwarfs represent half of his available force and that 1000 adult males represents roughly 60% of the total male population (allowing 15% children and adolescents and 25% venerable elders) that's a total of roughly 1700 males. A total population in the Iron Hills of 3500 or so seems about right.

That 3500 is,of course, prior to the Battle of Five armies and is probably about 3200-3300 before many relocate to Erebor.
Adding Dwarfs from other s who arrive en masse to recolonize the Lonely mountain, I would go for nearly 5000 in total across the two s.

I think that a large part of the new settlers of Erebor might come from other places than the Iron Hills or the Blue mountains. It's reasonable to think that it existed several small settlements of exiles from Erebor spread out in the lands of men. Much like Thráin II:s settlement in Dunland.

As an example some of them might have settled is Isengard after the war against the Orcs of Misty Mountains, because of the proximity and the shared interests in craft with Saruman.

I agree completely Vidugavia. As I said, a large number of Dwarfs are likely to have come from other s, especially the colony in the Blue Mountains and any others where the House of Durin are present in any numbers.
I think that it cannot be underestimated how important the liberation of Erebor is to them though. Only the reclamation ofMoria would be more significant. I imagine that to the battered (but still defiant) psyche of the Dwarf folk, nothing could be more desireable than to return to and dwell in those hallowed halls.
Of course, A Dwarf is still a Dwarf and it is likely that those whose wealth is based in their current homeland and who envisage their personal fortunes diminished by a return to Erebor are likely to remain where they are.
As one example, i imagine that there are still a rump of Dwarfs dwelling in the Blue mountains, but greatly diminished in numbers. These were Thorin Oakenshield's folk after all.

I think that somewhere in my initial post, I kind of changed tack. Originally I was trying to make a case to challenge the pre conception of the demographic ratio of males to females in Dwarf society in 2946 when trying to establish their numbers in the Wilderland.

You can tell them apart?
This is what you get for not using a dwarf to count the population.

Well, as a non-Dwarf you can't tell them apart. But since the women leave the halls only under extreme duress or in times of emergency (according to the Appendix), we can be fairly sure that all the dwarven warriors on the battlefields around Middle-earth were exclusively males.

Best
Tolwen

So at the moment, my take on the population figures is looking like 10,000 Elves in the Woodland realm, 5000 Dwarfs between Erebor and the Iron Hills, a thousand Bardings and three thousand Lakemen in Dale and Esgaroth and, perhaps, a further seven or eight thousand Bardings living in exile along the valleys of the Redwater and the River Running. Throw in a bare handful of itinerant Hobbits and that only leaves the populations of Beornings and of the Woodmen for me to get my head around.
Anyone got any thoughts on those two cultures.

There is a great article about this in the latest issue of Other Minds. It is approximately 60 pages of information. A hearty thanks to Tolwen.!


HN