Deadly Archery

[zedturtle]

Ok, my new simulator is finally complete enough for some public stress-testing.

Simulator 2.0

Notes:
1) There is no validation. You can combine any cultural rewards and virtues, use bows from Forward Stance, add a volley to Great Axes, use Shield-fighting with a 2H weapon, etc. So it's up to you to create a hero that's possible.
2) The single iteration setting is for debugging: inspecting the fight log can reveal errors in the sim logic. Sometimes you have to run it several times before you get the condition you're looking for. (I.e., does Axe of Azanulbizar work properly on a Gandalf?) Please help me find bugs! And tell me if the combat log needs more detail to enable that.
3) Combat ends after 50 rounds, so if you're seeing averages close to that it means the true average would probably be much larger.
4) "Conditions" are not implemented
5) The numbers I posted earlier in this thread are way off. Especially on the Great Orc.
6) Yes, the UI is hideously ugly and a pain to use. That will get fixed....eventually.

Cool, thanks for reminding me of this. I meant to beta-test it more... but something (probably several somethings) happened to distract me...

[Glorelendil]

Oh, and adversaries do not spend Hate. The point isn't to predict how long it will take you to actually defeat a Great Orc...because you will undoubtedly have help from companions...it's to quantify the relative death-dealing ability of various cultures/builds.

[Glorelendil]

Here's a doozy from the combat log:

Hero attacks and rolls (10|51)=16 (vs. 19)
--Hero spends Hope to turn a miss into a pierce.
--Great Orc takes 7 damage (-117 left).
--Great Orc rolls protection: (S|0000)[+7]=7 vs. 18
--Great Orc is wounded (1 total)

Look at that protection roll! (In case the notation is too opaque, the number before the bar is the Feat die, the digits after the bar are the success dice. In this case they were all 1's, 2's, and 3's because he's Weary so they come out as 4 zeroes.)

Which reminds me of another note: I didn't bother reversing Gandalf and Eye of Sauron for adversaries.

[Deadmanwalking]

Okay, first off, I'll note that this calculator is awesome. Thank you very much Glorelendil. Seriously, that's really great.

I do have one question: What does Hound of Mirkwood actually do in this? That Virtue does so many different things and I have no idea which, if any, are included here.

But, to return to the thread's stated topic let's look at a Barding with Fierce Shot and an Elf with the -1d6 version of Deadly Aim both using Called Shots, both otherwise as statistically similar as I can arrange:

Elf Sample (26 XP)
Body: 5(8), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards: Woodland_bow
Hacks: Minus_1d6_protection
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.28 (0%)
Average Hope: 0.22
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 0.76 (-5%)
Average Hope: 0.5
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 10.49 (3%)
Average Hope: 2.58

So, the Barding, meanwhile, has:

Barding Sample (30 XP)
Body: 5(8), Heart: 5(5)
Virtues & Rewards: Fierce_shot
Hacks:
Weapon: Keen, Fell, Grievous Great Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.61 (-15%)
Average Hope: 0.27
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 1.26 (-9%)
Average Hope: 0.56
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 9.63 (-5%)
Average Hope: 2.6

That leaves the Barding better off vs. the Great Orc and only slightly worse vs. the other two. That seems a pretty solid distinction to me. Both are way better than Hobbits and a bit better than non-Hound using Woodmen, but it seems valid.

[Glorelendil]

Well, the XP total isn't counting Hacks, so the Elf should have 4 more XP. And Keen isn't doing the Barding any good if he's doing all Called Shots, so he should have one less reward (although you might want to replace it with Dalish Longbow.) So in your runs the Elf was spending more XP to get there.

Here are two I just ran, also using Called Shot, at 20 XP each.

Elf (16 XP)
Body: 6(9), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards: Woodland_bow
Hacks: Minus_1d6_protection
Weapon: Fell Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.36
Average Hope: 0.24
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 0.74
Average Hope: 0.52
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 10.63
Average Hope: 2.73


Barding (20 XP)
Body: 6(9), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards: Fierce_shot, Dalish_longbow
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell Great Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.71 (97%)
Average Hope: 0.23
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 1.35 (82%)
Average Hope: 0.5
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 10.3 (-3%)
Average Hope: 2.42

Those results show that the Barding is slightly better...3% faster...killing the Great Orc, but takes nearly twice as long to kill the Attercop or Black Uruk, for about the same Hope. I would say that's a pretty big difference, especially since heroes will typically face a lot more weaker adversaries than they will Great Orcs, Snow Trolls, etc.

By the way, that was giving them both an Opening Volley; the difference would be even more pronounced if the Barding got zero and the Elf got one (because of Woodland Bow).

I also tried it with Stinging Arrow instead of Called Shot, giving the Barding Grievous, and the Elf won on the Great Orc by around 8%, but at the cost of a lot of Hope. I wonder if anybody can beat 9.07 seconds (average) for 30 XP or less...

P.S. the Hound of Mirkwood makes the adversary Weary. Yes, even if you're using a bow.

[zedturtle]

At the point, I feel like you're just picking nits, however. Again, we are not going to find perfect balance and one build being better for big guys and one build be better for small guys just means an ideal party would have both members, and they'd both be contributing their fair share.

[Glorelendil]

At the point, I feel like you're just picking nits, however. Again, we are not going to find perfect balance and one build being better for big guys and one build be better for small guys just means an ideal party would have both members, and they'd both be contributing their fair share.

I agree with you in principle, but in this case it's "Almost as good against the occasional Great Size adversary, but nearly twice as deadly...than the 2nd best archer in the game...against everything else."

[Angelalex242]

Woodland Bow's extra volley is what's doing most of the work.

Attercop and Black Uruks don't typically come alone.

Try them against 3 of each. After all, the opening Volley is typically only going to kill the first one faster...

[Glorelendil]

Woodland Bow's extra volley is what's doing most of the work.

Attercop and Black Uruks don't typically come alone.

Try them against 3 of each. After all, the opening Volley is typically only going to kill the first one faster...

Heroes don't typically come alone, either.

[Deadmanwalking]

Well, the XP total isn't counting Hacks, so the Elf should have 4 more XP.

Right. That's why the Elf's listed at 26 and the Barding at 30.

And Keen isn't doing the Barding any good if he's doing all Called Shots, so he should have one less reward (although you might want to replace it with Dalish Longbow.) So in your runs the Elf was spending more XP to get there.

Amusingly, I tried using the Dalish Longbow instead of Keen. Keen resulted in better results statistically. No idea why, though now that you mention it, that does indeed not make a lot of sense...maybe a glitch of some sort?

Here are two I just ran, also using Called Shot, at 20 XP each.

Well, the Barding's gonna look worse and worse the lower the skills of both are because Tengwars matter a lot more to him.

Those results show that the Barding is slightly better...3% faster...killing the Great Orc, but takes nearly twice as long to kill the Attercop or Black Uruk, for about the same Hope. I would say that's a pretty big difference, especially since heroes will typically face a lot more weaker adversaries than they will Great Orcs, Snow Trolls, etc.

True, but killing things like Great Orcs is really important when it does come up.

By the way, that was giving them both an Opening Volley; the difference would be even more pronounced if the Barding got zero and the Elf got one (because of Woodland Bow).

Oh, I'm sure they would.

I also tried it with Stinging Arrow instead of Called Shot, giving the Barding Grievous, and the Elf won on the Great Orc by around 8%, but at the cost of a lot of Hope. I wonder if anybody can beat 9.07 seconds (average) for 30 XP or less...

I'll see what I can do...

P.S. the Hound of Mirkwood makes the adversary Weary. Yes, even if you're using a bow.

I thought that might be it. Actually...let's use that to simulate the earlier suggestion of making the adversary Weary for Protection Tests only and see how that works out:

Elf Sample (30 XP)
Body: 5(8), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards: Hound_of_mirkwood, Woodland_bow
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.33
Average Hope: 0.23
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 0.95
Average Hope: 0.55
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 11.97
Average Hope: 2.86

Huh...that's quite a bit better. Still slightly superior to the Barding on weaker foes, but not as much, and even worse vs. the Great Orc. It's not quite as elegant, but seems functional.

Woodland Bow's extra volley is what's doing most of the work.

Attercop and Black Uruks don't typically come alone.

Try them against 3 of each. After all, the opening Volley is typically only going to kill the first one faster...

Heroes don't typically come alone, either.

This is true.

And besides, I tried it without the Woodland Bow and the -1d6 Elf was still doing better than the Barding on those foes (not as much, but still better).