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atgxtg wrote:Sorry, nothing personal, but I think I'd need to see the numbers to be convinced. I still don't think it is as powerful as Hobbit's Far Shot.

And as far as Orcs and Spiders go, someone with a good body score and a 2H weapon (say a Beorning) with skill 4+ is probably going to be dropping more orcs and spiders, since they can do enough damage on a great success to drop most mooks with a single hit.

You want math? Okay. The following uses this calculator that Glorelendil whipped up and linked in the Deadly Archery thread.

So, here's the calculation for 'first enemy killed' for a Beorning with a Greataxe, an Elf with a Woodland Bow, and a Hobbit with a Bow of the North Downs and Fair Shot:

Elf (26 XP)
Body: 5(7), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards: Woodland_bow
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.15
Average Hope: 0.08
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 1.22
Average Hope: 0.41
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 31.95
Average Hope: 4.42

Hobbit (30 XP)
Body: 4(6), Heart: 5(5)
Virtues & Rewards: Fair_shot, Bow_of_the_north_downs
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 0.72
Average Hope: 0
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 1.54
Average Hope: 0.04
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 24.62
Average Hope: 0.39

Beorning (26 XP)
Body: 5(7), Heart: 5(5)
Virtues & Rewards:
Hacks:
Weapon: Keen, Fell, Grievous Great Axe: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 1.56
Average Hope: 0.08
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 2.35
Average Hope: 0.33
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 16.37
Average Hope: 2.13

And here's their calculations for enemies after the first (by turning off opening volleys and ditching the Woodland Bow). The Beorning's remain the same:

Elf (16 XP)
Body: 5(7), Heart: 4(4)
Virtues & Rewards:
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 1.59
Average Hope: 0.08
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 3.15
Average Hope: 0.4
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 33.75
Average Hope: 4.4

Hobbit (30 XP)
Body: 4(6), Heart: 5(5)
Virtues & Rewards: Fair_shot, Bow_of_the_north_downs
Hacks:
Weapon: Fell, Grievous Bow: 4
Stance: Defensive/Rearward
vs. Attercop
Average Rounds: 1.7
Average Hope: 0
vs. Black Uruk
Average Rounds: 2.51
Average Hope: 0.04
vs. Great Orc
Average Rounds: 25.2
Average Hope: 0.37

Now, with simple addition, we can figure out how quickly they all kill, say, 3 foes:

The Elf kills 3 attercops in 3.33 rounds for .24 Hope, and 3 Black Uruks in 7.51 rounds for 1.2 Hope.
The Hobbit kills 3 attercops in 4.12 rounds for 0 Hope, and 3 Black Uruks in 6.56 rounds for .12 Hope.
The Beorning kills 3 attercops in 4.68 rounds for .24 Hope, and 3 Black Uruks in 7.05 rounds for .99 Hope.

Both the Hobbit and the Elf go down to around 16 rounds (right on par with the Beorning) to kill the Great Orc if making Called Shots (which they should be in that instance). The Elf's number also goes down a bit (to 7.08 rounds) on 3 Uruks if making called shots, but Hope expenditure goes up a lot (to 1.9).

Of course, needing to kill 3 Black Uruks by yourself is rare, and the Elf does a lot better comparatively vs. only 2 (4.36 rounds to the Hobbits 4.05 and the Beorning's 4.7).

And bear in mind that the Hobbit has both a Bow of the North Downs and Fair Shot for this comparison, while the Elf has only a Woodland Bow (and the Beorning only Keen). Dropping something from the Hobbit to make his stats equal would likely reduce his numbers a bit.

I'd say that those stats pretty firmly indicate that Woodland Bow is very effective and elves do fine in comparison to other characters.

Deadmanwalking wrote: You want math? Okay. The following uses this calculator that Glorelendil whipped up and linked in the Deadly Archery thread.

Oh. There it is.

Deadmanwalking wrote:I'd say that those stats pretty firmly indicate that Woodland Bow is very effective and elves do fine in comparison to other characters.

Great analysis and post, especially when you didn't have to do that.

I think these kind of things are a good example of the dangers of comparing particular Virtues, Rewards and other abilities in isolation rather than as a whole. There's a lot of 'buried maths' in TOR which obfuscates some of the balancing factors at play between characters and differing cultures.

Rich H wrote:

Deadmanwalking wrote:I'd say that those stats pretty firmly indicate that Woodland Bow is very effective and elves do fine in comparison to other characters.

Great analysis and post, especially when you didn't have to do that.

Well, in fairness, it was doing that kinda math myself on that calculator that convinced me that Woodland Bow is as great as it is, so I kinda feel the need to pay it forward.

And thanks.

Rich H wrote:I think these kind of things are a good example of the dangers of comparing particular Virtues, Rewards and other abilities in isolation rather than as a whole. There's a lot of 'buried maths' in TOR which obfuscates some of the balancing factors at play between characters and differing cultures.

Definitely. Some stuff is really not obvious at all at first glance, especially before you get an in-depth feel for the system...but even once you do a lot of stuff is sneakily well-balanced (especially the combination of many Cultures stat layouts with their Virtues, Rewards, and Blessings). It's not that there aren't any problems (though there are relatively few), but that things that look like they are sometimes aren't when you actually check the math.

I love the calculation, because it leaves me with only one unanswered question:

Glorelendil wrote: Of course, if you want Mirkwood Elves to all be action movie stars, if you think that they should be wreaking holy havoc with their bows, then by all means buff away.

Really love these threads, super constructive

I second Rich H's comments about the dangers of trying to change the mechanics.

Have you thought instead about making use of the underlying differences between a Woodland Bow, Bow & Great Bow?

By which I mean think about what these weapons were designed for- the Woodland Bow specifically is designed to be used in Mirkwood (i.e. a LM should not be applying the Severely Hindered -4 penalty which he/she should do for the other Bows in Mirkwood - especially a Great Bow!). Not to mention that Folk of the Dusk also applies....

Don't forget that Legolas has the Keen-eyed trait as well, so with the above Deadly Archery does become deadly (well it would if I was LMing it!). I would definitely recommend a player wanting to play an elven archer to take Keen-eyed...

Robin S.

Deadmanwalking wrote: You want math? Okay. The following uses this calculator that Glorelendil whipped up and linked in the Deadly Archery thread.

Yes I do. And I still want math. Not just posted results that cannot be verified.

Deadmanwalking wrote: I'd say that those stats pretty firmly indicate that Woodland Bow is very effective and elves do fine in comparison to other characters.

And I'd say those stats are pretty dubious. You pretty much rigged the contest. First off, you don't just run the Elf with a woodland bow, but you give the bow fell and grievous, rewards that are designed to back up that theory.

Secondly, you "nerfed" the Beorning. Severely.
1) You give him a 5 Body, even though only one of the six backgrounds presented starts off that low.
2) You arm him with a great axe, rather than the far deadly great spear, or even a splitting axe.


You also set the example up "in a vacuum" and completely ignore the fact that the characters are going to half to defend against enemy attacks, and that the elf needs two other characters to shield him form the opposition in order to keep using that bow. Or that the woodland bow's advantage is only good for the opening volley, and don't factor in for longer fights, where the elf's numbers aren't nearly so good. So basically, under ideal conditions for the elf with the bow he does very well.

Oh, and you example does more to show how important "Grevious" is to the elf, rather than Woodland Bow. It's what's letting him kill addercops with great successes.

spivo wrote:I love the calculation, because it leaves me with only one unanswered question:

Glorelendil wrote: Of course, if you want Mirkwood Elves to all be action movie stars, if you think that they should be wreaking holy havoc with their bows, then by all means buff away.

Really love these threads, super constructive

Some folks clearly express their desire for exactly that: they want their elves to be more like the movie Legolas and less like the books. If that's what they're going for then, yeah, RAW elves need more oomph.

atgxtg wrote:

Deadmanwalking wrote: You want math? Okay. The following uses this calculator that Glorelendil whipped up and linked in the Deadly Archery thread.

Yes I do. And I still want math. Not just posted results that cannot be verified.

Deadmanwalking wrote: I'd say that those stats pretty firmly indicate that Woodland Bow is very effective and elves do fine in comparison to other characters.

And I'd say those stats are pretty dubious. You pretty much rigged the contest. First off, you don't just run the Elf with a woodland bow, but you give the bow fell and grievous, rewards that are designed to back up that theory.
(...).

To be fair, Atgxtg, Deadmanwalking gave Fell and Grievous to all the weapons in the test.
All three examples got a 3-rewards weapon.

Maybe you can try the calculator yourself? I think he linked it in his post above.

If you're suspicious of the simulation (which you should be...voting machines, too) then run it with a iterations set to "one" and study the log. If you find anything anomalous please let me know and I'll fix it.