Roleplaying Uncertainty
Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:31 am
One thing I’ve never been satisfied with in RPGs are using skill rolls to resolve things that in the real world would generally result in uncertainty, even on a success. Is the chest trapped? Is the captive lying? Which passage is the right one? Are the mushrooms poisonous? Should I cut the red wire or the blue wire?
The problem with resolving these things with a simple skill roll is that it removes the uncertainty. You beat the target number, therefore you succeed. The LM will often say, “You think that…” but really you don’t think, you know. You can see the dice, and they say you know.
Or maybe the dice say the opposite: you don’t know. So now the next player, perhaps with lower skill, says, “I’ll try.” On the one hand this is perfectly fair. If you’re trying to determine if the captive is lying or the chest is trapped, why not get second and third opinions? On the other hand, this kind of breaks the point of the mechanic, in a statistical sense.
Furthermore, failure can’t provide a false positive, because again everybody can see the dice. Imagine the askance reaction if somebody utterly fails an Insight roll and the LM says, “You think he’s lying.”
I’ll digress here for a moment to say that I think this problem gets at the heart of what roleplaying and immersion are all about: inhabiting your character in the sense of experiencing what your character experiences, not merely acting a part for the benefit of others at the table. If my character is quite sure that it’s the blue wire, but in reality not entirely 100.0% sure, then as the player I want to have the same nagging doubt. I want to be worried I’m wrong. I want to be in suspense.
The traditional model of "success means success" leaves no room for suspense.
Many of these questions are not about knowledge but about clues. For example, nobody can know for certain if somebody else is lying (that’s what “Detect Lie” spells are for). At best we non-Wizards might use Insight to notice body language and facial expression and verbal clues, but we still have to interpret them.
So one option is for the LM to describe the clues, but that’s both hard to improvise consistently, and honestly it’s also nearly impossible to deliver ambiguously. "Umm...you notice his eye twitching." For chrissake you just beat the TN by 6 so you know perfectly well that "eye twitching" means he's lying.
Another option is for the LM to roll secretly. I’m opposed to LMs (and DMs and GMs) making rolls for players on principal...it feels like loss of agency...but this solution by itself also doesn’t provide enough nuance: it allows for players to be uncertain why they don't find anything, but not for them to be uncertain about the reliability of their answers when they do. "You don't think he's lying" could either mean he's not lying, or that you failed the roll. But "you think he's lying" can only mean you succeeded, unless the GM is arbitrarily interpreting the results.
Essentially what I want to do is make that interpretation less arbitrary. I’d like to propose another kind of secret roll: an additional roll made after the player succeeds. This approach is based on the premise that success means only that you notice a clue, not that you know with certainty how to interpret it.
After a success, the LM rolls the additional secret die, and that result determines whether the correct or incorrect result is given, with the threshold changing based on the degree of success. For example, let’s use a single d6: On a regular success if the LM secretly rolls 4+ (50%) then the player gets the correct information. On a great success it’s 3+ (66%), and on an extraordinary success it’s 2+ (83%). If this secret roll fails then the player gets the opposite information. “Yeah, you think he’s lying.”
(Note for AiME: this system works best with degrees of success, but with d20 you could treat each 5 points about the DC as another success. So 23 vs. DC 15 would be 2 successes.)
We can easily tweak the odds by using different dice schemes. It could be roll 1d6 for each success, and all 1’s mean false positive (so 83%, 97%, and 99.5%). Or we could use a Feat die, with thresholds of 2, 1, and Eye of Sauron. I would suggest that these odds be based, though, not on the difficulty of the test...that’s what the TN of the original roll is for...but on the consequences for the heroes. Will acting on the wrong information result in a TPK, or just inconvenience/embarrassment?
Note that the other players now have an incentive to participate in the action, instead of watching the guy with the highest skill go, and only jumping in if he fails. And the participation of more players in turn lets us set the TNs higher for what should be difficult tasks. “Ok, three of you failed, two ordinary successes think he’s telling the truth, but the extraordinary success thinks he’s lying. What are you going to do?”
I’ve been thinking about this problem as I continue to struggle through my ideas for underground travel, for which I believe this kind of uncertainty is essential for creating the appropriate atmosphere. As I considered the solution it occurred to me that it also was applicable to lie detection, trap detection, and a variety of other common scenarios.
The one thing this solution doesn’t provide for is the player failing the roll but thinking he succeeds. However, I like to think of failure as “doesn’t have anything to contribute” and success as “noticed a clue”: the secondary, secret roll simulates whether his interpretation of the clue is correct.
The problem with resolving these things with a simple skill roll is that it removes the uncertainty. You beat the target number, therefore you succeed. The LM will often say, “You think that…” but really you don’t think, you know. You can see the dice, and they say you know.
Or maybe the dice say the opposite: you don’t know. So now the next player, perhaps with lower skill, says, “I’ll try.” On the one hand this is perfectly fair. If you’re trying to determine if the captive is lying or the chest is trapped, why not get second and third opinions? On the other hand, this kind of breaks the point of the mechanic, in a statistical sense.
Furthermore, failure can’t provide a false positive, because again everybody can see the dice. Imagine the askance reaction if somebody utterly fails an Insight roll and the LM says, “You think he’s lying.”
I’ll digress here for a moment to say that I think this problem gets at the heart of what roleplaying and immersion are all about: inhabiting your character in the sense of experiencing what your character experiences, not merely acting a part for the benefit of others at the table. If my character is quite sure that it’s the blue wire, but in reality not entirely 100.0% sure, then as the player I want to have the same nagging doubt. I want to be worried I’m wrong. I want to be in suspense.
The traditional model of "success means success" leaves no room for suspense.
Many of these questions are not about knowledge but about clues. For example, nobody can know for certain if somebody else is lying (that’s what “Detect Lie” spells are for). At best we non-Wizards might use Insight to notice body language and facial expression and verbal clues, but we still have to interpret them.
So one option is for the LM to describe the clues, but that’s both hard to improvise consistently, and honestly it’s also nearly impossible to deliver ambiguously. "Umm...you notice his eye twitching." For chrissake you just beat the TN by 6 so you know perfectly well that "eye twitching" means he's lying.
Another option is for the LM to roll secretly. I’m opposed to LMs (and DMs and GMs) making rolls for players on principal...it feels like loss of agency...but this solution by itself also doesn’t provide enough nuance: it allows for players to be uncertain why they don't find anything, but not for them to be uncertain about the reliability of their answers when they do. "You don't think he's lying" could either mean he's not lying, or that you failed the roll. But "you think he's lying" can only mean you succeeded, unless the GM is arbitrarily interpreting the results.
Essentially what I want to do is make that interpretation less arbitrary. I’d like to propose another kind of secret roll: an additional roll made after the player succeeds. This approach is based on the premise that success means only that you notice a clue, not that you know with certainty how to interpret it.
After a success, the LM rolls the additional secret die, and that result determines whether the correct or incorrect result is given, with the threshold changing based on the degree of success. For example, let’s use a single d6: On a regular success if the LM secretly rolls 4+ (50%) then the player gets the correct information. On a great success it’s 3+ (66%), and on an extraordinary success it’s 2+ (83%). If this secret roll fails then the player gets the opposite information. “Yeah, you think he’s lying.”
(Note for AiME: this system works best with degrees of success, but with d20 you could treat each 5 points about the DC as another success. So 23 vs. DC 15 would be 2 successes.)
We can easily tweak the odds by using different dice schemes. It could be roll 1d6 for each success, and all 1’s mean false positive (so 83%, 97%, and 99.5%). Or we could use a Feat die, with thresholds of 2, 1, and Eye of Sauron. I would suggest that these odds be based, though, not on the difficulty of the test...that’s what the TN of the original roll is for...but on the consequences for the heroes. Will acting on the wrong information result in a TPK, or just inconvenience/embarrassment?
Note that the other players now have an incentive to participate in the action, instead of watching the guy with the highest skill go, and only jumping in if he fails. And the participation of more players in turn lets us set the TNs higher for what should be difficult tasks. “Ok, three of you failed, two ordinary successes think he’s telling the truth, but the extraordinary success thinks he’s lying. What are you going to do?”
I’ve been thinking about this problem as I continue to struggle through my ideas for underground travel, for which I believe this kind of uncertainty is essential for creating the appropriate atmosphere. As I considered the solution it occurred to me that it also was applicable to lie detection, trap detection, and a variety of other common scenarios.
The one thing this solution doesn’t provide for is the player failing the roll but thinking he succeeds. However, I like to think of failure as “doesn’t have anything to contribute” and success as “noticed a clue”: the secondary, secret roll simulates whether his interpretation of the clue is correct.