What is the situation in Mordor when Sauron is gone?

[atgxtg]

All of the fortification we know about in western Mordor are actually Gondorian built with the exception of Barad-Dur.

Interesting. It might be that after the fall of Sauron the Gondorians set up those fortications to "lock up" all the bad things from that region and keep them there.

[Glorelendil]

Just want to pop in and say that when filling in the blank spaces that Tolkien so generously left us, instead of asking what is most likely I like to ask what would be the most fun, and then try to rationalize it, even if the result conflicts with what we would expect from analogous eras and cultures in our own history.

[feld]

IIRC that was Tolkien's explicit intent with the Tower of Cirith Ungol as stated in LotR. I cannot find a specific reference to the Black Gate being gondorian made though. Might have gotten that one wrong.

As for fun, you might consider that some players think "the most fun" is "whatever JRRT would most likely have put there."

[Glorelendil]

As for fun, you might consider that some players think "the most fun" is "whatever JRRT would most likely have put there."

Uh...sure. But I'm having trouble imagining a more speculative and subjective activity.

I meant "likely" in the sense of using a Graham T. Allison "Rational Actor" analysis. I.e., what would be the most rational action for each individual, and what would that lead to.

[Otaku-sempai]

Just want to pop in and say that when filling in the blank spaces that Tolkien so generously left us, instead of asking what is most likely I like to ask what would be the most fun, and then try to rationalize it, even if the result conflicts with what we would expect from analogous eras and cultures in our own history.

That's where speculations about such things as secret mountain passes come into play. Passes that could be used by slaves to escape Mordor, by scouts spying on Sauron's realm, by smugglers or by Sauron's own servants--depending on who knows about them. And a crossroad deep inside Mordor might represent: a city on the coast of the Sea of Nurnen where Sauron's officers go to carouse, wench and plot against each other; a checkpoint that spies need to sneak past; a fortress that the Heroes must infiltrate; or just a spot where two roads intersect.

[feld]

Uh...sure. But I'm having trouble imagining a more speculative and subjective activity.

Blink. Why would I play an RPG set in a speculative fiction setting if I didn't like speculation?

Speculation is FUN. Enough speculation by Tolkien added verisimilitude and depth to the secondary world. He called it giving a work "the inner consistency of reality" I believe. It's a testament to his work that we can do this sort of analysis with it at all for more than a one or two logical steps...but I'd argue that it's actually necessary to maintain the feeling of M.E. unless you only stay very close to the plots, places, and people he writes about. My rationale is that he often spoke of the need for a backdrop of sorts; a backdrop of snippets of myths and language and mountains seen in the far distance to give his reader a sense of a larger world beyond the "frame" of the story he was telling. For him (and I find for me) the effect is profoundly stimulating.

Well the problem with tacking on any new thing in M.E. constructively is that one often ends up wanting to walk into Tolkien's "backdrop". You end up with your players wanting to cross the mountains. I find it helpful to create new backdrop so I can let my players "go" there (in a geographic or historical sense) while maintaining a M.E. feel.

Is it speculative? You bet.

Do you have to know when speculation switches from "fun" to "not fun"? Sure. But that's trivial if you have any social sense at all. Just watch the players. Harder on the internet of course.

Am I probably wrong about what JRRT would likely have put in Mordor? Yup.

Does it matter as long as I help maintain the M.E. feel for my players? Not one bit.

I meant "likely" in the sense of using a Graham T. Allison "Rational Actor" analysis. I.e., what would be the most rational action for each individual, and what would that lead to.

Ah. I was using the first sense listed in the Oxford Dictionary of English (online edition) of "probable." Leading people and following many leaders has left me with the conviction that rational actor models don't fit the observational data very well. In story writing, I point out a popular science fiction writer who bases his story ideas on historical events (David Drake) who has said in my hearing that the problem with that approach is that you have to be careful which events you pick. He says that, for many historical events, the people and "plots" seem so irrational that no one would believe them in a story.

Anyway, my 2(insert regional currency here) worth.

v/r
feld

[Terisonen]

As we say in french, "La réalité dépasse la fiction" (reality surpasse fiction)

[Glorelendil]

Am I probably wrong about what JRRT would likely have put in Mordor? Yup.

Does it matter as long as I help maintain the M.E. feel for my players? Not one bit.

Then I think we are saying exactly the same thing. I could have sworn you were saying that we could figure out what Tolkien would most likely have written himself.

I meant "likely" in the sense of using a Graham T. Allison "Rational Actor" analysis. I.e., what would be the most rational action for each individual, and what would that lead to.

Ah. I was using the first sense listed in the Oxford Dictionary of English (online edition) of "probable."

/eyeroll

Sorry if I lost you by omitting what I thought were obvious steps. I'll break it down:

1) Yes, "likely" and "probable" are close synonyms
2) But how do we compute what is likely or probable? There are many ways to do that...
3) We could try to model every fundamental particle in Middle-earth, simulate what happens next, and call that "probable" (or "likely"). Just throwing that out there as an option for illustrative purposes.
4) I read the words you chose and concluded you were trying to predict what JRRT would have written, and were calling that "most likely", although I must have misunderstood.
5) Or we could look at the most important figures and ask "what would their optimal strategy be?", and see where that leads. That's what people seem to do a lot, and what I was suggesting can result in missed opportunities for fun.

In any event, based on what you wrote above it seems you agree with me.

[feld]

We do appear to be in violent agreement!

It appeared to me that you were criticizing the entire exercise as some sort of not-fun and asking the posters in this thread why they bothered. I now acknowledge my misunderstanding.

I am at peace and wish you the same.