Sauron weakened now?

[Woodclaw]

Sauron was also driven out of Dol Guldur by the White Council less than a decade ago. While this might not be a gigantic setback for him, surely hindered some of his plans and cost him some resources.

Not really. He feigned fighting, and intentionally withdrew to Mordor. He planned it all along.

I withdraw my objection.

[Otaku-sempai]

Not really. He feigned fighting, and intentionally withdrew to Mordor. He planned it all along.

Yes, that was one of my points. The events of TA 2941 were no setback or defeat for him at all. He orchestrated his "defeat" carefully long in advance and as Otaku-sempai said, all those that fell victim to the White Council's attack were those he had earmarked to be sacrificed for this charade (these need not to have been aware of this of course...). You can bet he sacrificed no one that was important for his plans.

Back home in Mordor he then began to build up his war machine in earnest. Personally, he did not lose any power beyond options for the North (which proved to be important later).

Cheers
Tolwen

I wouldn't say that Sauron suffered no setbacks at all. You acknowledge, yourself, that he was prevented from launching attacks against Lorien and Rivendell while he was based in Dol Guldur--and he was denied the possibity of having Smaug for an ally. If the Council had not acted when it did then the War of the Ring might have started decades earlier and with very different results.

[Tolwen]

I wouldn't say that Sauron suffered no setbacks at all. You acknowledge, yourself, that he was prevented from launching attacks against Lorien and Rivendell while he was based in Dol Guldur--and he was denied the possibity of having Smaug for an ally. If the Council had not acted when it did then the War of the Ring might have started decades earlier and with very different results.

You're right of course. I noted this contradiction as well and though I'd had to clarify that a bit
Indeed, he had a setback due to his strategic retreat which clearly diminished his ability for power projection in central and northern Rhovanion. I don't think that the War of the Ring could have started earlier. While his options in the North were indeed curtailed, his personal power or that of his military was not. And the latter was not ready in TA 2941 or decisively earlier than 3017. His main base and center of political power was Mordor, and therefore he moved there. There he worked meticulously to rebuild his military power and when that was ready for action, he struck. DG was a good base, but from its location it lacked the infrastructure to support and maintain big armies. OTOH, Mordor had the facilities for this. IIRC Tolkien mentions, that Sauron even started the War of Ring a bit prematurely (i.e. earlier than Sauron would have preferred): Sauron knew that the Ring had been found and wanted to force the new Ring-owner into action and crush him before the latter could build a military infrastructure capable of withstanding Mordor's forces.

That land had long been prepared for Sauron's return by the Nazgûl, and everything was done nicely for him there. In the end, it was Mordor where he wanted to go sooner or later, and so he did not see his move as a defeat (as already said, he long had contingency plans ready for implementation for just this case).
What indeed worked to his disadvantage was the coincidence with the quest for Erebor, robing him the possibility to support Smaug in some way and preventing a dangerous enemy (Durin's Folk and the Bardings) from establishing themselves in Erebor and Dale. This was something he had not taken into account and it narrowed his strategic options indeed.

But concerning a power (either personal or those of his underlings), that was not diminished in the least but only re-located in its focus (from Dol Guldur to Mordor). In 2951, DG was re-opened again and the power of the base re-established as well to its former level. The fortunate strategic situation with Smaug was then gone of course.

Cheers
Tolwen

[Corvo]

At this point in time Sauron is probably just as strong (or nearly so) as he is during the War of the Ring. He has been recovering his strength for almost 3000 years; I'm not sure that the next 70-some years will make much of a difference.
(...)

This is my thinking as well.

What I believe is that, till 2951 (when he declares openly), Sauron isn't exerting his full power, to better hide his presence.
Maybe during the War of the Ring he's exerting (radiating?) his full might, so his minion are stronger and bolder. But I doubt that in 3017 he's really more powerful than in 2947.

[Elmoth]

Agreed. I think 2power for him is about resources, not raw power. In 3017 he certainly controls a significant ammount of resources when compared to 2947. He mobilizes his resources and moves into the open to manage them, skyrocketing his power as a major gamer of Northeastern ME.

[Mim]

What I believe is that, till 2951 (when he declares openly), Sauron isn't exerting his full power, to better hide his presence.

This is my interpretation of the books as well. The Dark Lord rises as subtly and secretly as possible. When he releases his minions just before and during the War of the Ring, well, then he tears into the Free-peoples with everything he can.

A number of events compel him to strike sooner than he (apparently) prefers - such as Elessar revealing himself in the stone - but Gandalf explains after the Battle of the Pelennor Fields that they still cannot defeat Sauron in a conventional war. This again leaves - by default - the destruction of the Ring as their only hope.

[Glorelendil]

It's funny, if we talk about the "power" of a non-fictional leader....Putin, for example...we're talking about his influence and his ability to put troops in the field, not his actual manliness and virility (about which I have serious doubts...he looks like the guy who got wedgies in middle school). And if you found yourself in a room with Putin, you would be less intimated/awed by his personal physical power than the knowledge that he is an autocrat of a powerful state (and has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to use it without regard for rules or morality) but intimidated/awed nonetheless.

For a geopolitical schemer like Sauron, his personal "power" is probably less relevant than the strength and position of his chess pieces.

[Tolwen]

You're right. IMO the thing that might confuse us here is the meaning of "power". It can mean the personal power of the person Sauron (or the Nazgûl for example), but it can also stand for the extent of his armed forces and economical resources (i.e. his ability to wage and sustain a major war). The first (the personal power of Sauron & Co.) is indeed very likely not much different between TA 2941 and the War of the Ring. The second (the economy and armed forces) is very different between the two periods.

A short review highlights this quite good. In the War of the Ring, Sauron commands enough resources to maintain and direct armies in four theatres: The North (the Easterlings that attack Dale and Erebor), the Morannon area with Sauron's main force, the Minas Morgul army and the Corsairs plus Haradrim. The latter two are narrowly defeated by several fortunate and unique circumstances and the Minas Morgul army wasn't even the largest that Sauron fielded himself. During the WotR, his armed might surpasses anything the West can field by far - far beyond any ability to defeat even with superb generalship and extraordinary heroes. BTW: Sauron's commanders in the Battle of Pelennor Fields acted professionally and skilled, so it's not the usual foolish imperial general/admiral from Star Wars at work here. This is one of the things I ove in the LotR - the evil guys are not dumb and act competent. They generally lose due to circumstances outside their control and not because they are incompetent morons.

Forces of this scale are IMHO far beyond Sauron's logistic capabilities in Dol Guldur, and it is likely that he would have moved to Mordor sooner or later by himself to begin re-building his war machine for the coming war in earnest. Thus he made his plans and saw the retreat not as a defeat. The - for him - bad timing with the Erebor Quest was indeed really bad luck for him

Cheers
Tolwen