When to spend Hope in combat?

[Glorelendil]

I'm trying to add Hope mechanics to my combat sim, which means I need some heuristics for when a Hero should spend it. The UI lets you choose between 0, 1, or 2 maximum points to spend in a fight: when is it important enough to use them? I mean, obviously the idea is to only spend Hope to avoid losing a fight, but what's an algorithmic way to predict that?

Currently I'm playing around with two thresholds:

• Avoid taking a wound (even if it's a first wound).
  Turn a miss into a hit if there's at least one tengwar sitting on the table.

(Curiously, those two rules are making no discernible impact on win:loss ratios.)

If you were going to make a rule of thumb for when it's worth spending a point in a fight, what would it be? I think it's an interesting question beyond it's application in the sim.

As an aside, this shows up in the combat log occasionally:
Hero attacks and rolls (1|4621)=14+
--Hero spends Hope to turn a miss into a hit.
--Orc Chieftan1 uses its snake_like_speed
In other words, the Hero spent a point of Hope to turn a miss into a Great Success, and the Orc Chieftan spent a point of Hate to negate it. Seems shitty. Would you do that to your players?

[Yusei]

I'd evaluate how likely I am to win the confrontation without spending Hope. You could use a basic heuristic like:

- Will I soon be weary? Did I hit less than 50% of the time?
- If yes to one of them, do I have at least 2 Hope points before I am miserable?
- If yes, can I achieve something by spending Hope?
- If yes, spend Hope.

And then, add another rule to spend hope to avoid a second wound, even if it makes you miserable.

[Corvo]

Currently I'm playing around with two thresholds:

• Avoid taking a wound (even if it's a first wound).
  Turn a miss into a hit if there's at least one tengwar sitting on the table.

(...)

"Turn a miss into a hit if the feat die scored a wounding blow".

[Glorelendil]

"Turn a miss into a hit if the feat die scored a wounding blow".

I actually had that in there, but it triggered so rarely (have to roll Edge, but not Gandalf, and then get the right combination of skill dice to be below TN but in range of body score) that I changed it to the Great Success/Extraordinary Success rule.

But you're right, it should be in there anyway. Maybe I'll start tracking how Hope is spent and see how often these scenarios actually trigger.

[Glorelendil]

If anybody is interested, I started tracking uses of hope. I fought a Dwarf with weapon skill of 4 (not favored) and Body 7 against an Orc Chieftan 10,000 times, then again against a Great Orc 10,000 more times and got:
Use Hope to turn a miss into a Great Success: 4,805 / 4,166
Use Hope to turn a miss into an Extraordinary Success: 628 / 311
Use Hope to turn a miss into a Pierce: 407 / 437
Use Hope to avoid a second wound: 17 / 63

Interesting in the sense of frequency of which Hope can be used for those things.

[Corvo]

I'm interested!

Another possible addition: using "rolling with the blow" when the opponent scores an extraordinary success.
In defensive stance is pretty useful. Not so sure in forward (I have no book with me now. Going from memory, if you roll with the blow you have to maintain your stance, am I right?).

2 years ago I tested (manually, dozen times) a Barding swordmaster in defensive stance vs the weaken troll from the marsh bell. Rolling with the blow was crucial, apparently.

[Glorelendil]

On it.

[Glorelendil]

Done. I fought a Barding (Patient Hunter) with Sword (3) and Shield against an Orc Chieftan. "Rolling with the blow" on a Great Success by the orc increased win rate by around 1-2%. Increase seemed to be slightly higher in defensive, slightly lower in Forward.

I used a hero with relatively high parry, figuring the move is most effective when your chance of being hit is lower.

I'm guessing that optimization of this rule is more complex than just "on an extraordinary success". Current health, type of opponent, etc. will all factor in.

Update: I ran it again with no shield and wits of 2, in both forward and defensive stance, and results still seemed about the same...slight (1-2%) increase in win rate by getting knocked back on extraordinary success.