Protect Companion + Called Shot

[Rocmistro]

Just to preserve my own interwebz dignity, I did know the maths I originally posted were offs. But I confess I didn't know what the correct maths formulez were, and I didn't care too much.

[bluejay]

Absolutely and the main point still stands. I just felt that the 5/6 probability made it sound like it happened nearly all the time whereas in reality it's less than 2 shots out of 3. Personally I feel that makes called shot a little less attractive and so it is relevant.

[Rocmistro]

bluejay, just out of curiousity, what's the probability when you have 6 attack dice?

[zedturtle]

bluejay, just out of curiousity, what's the probability when you have 6 attack dice?

Not Bluejay, but 66.5%

I was recently looking at this math, for a different thing where the chance of getting a 6 on 5 dice would trigger something special, so that's why it's fresh in the mind.

And, your approximation earlier was good enough for a gut feeling thing.

[bluejay]

Funny you should say that ... I was going to ask what you'd have written if you had 6 success dice.

Basically the maths is like this...

You calculate the chance that you don't roll a 6 on every dice and then subtract that probability from 1.

So for each dice there is a 5/6 chance of not rolling 6. For multiple conditions that have to occur you multiply the probability. So for 1 dice the chance of not rolling 6 is 5/6. For 2 dice the chance of not rolling 6 on either dice is 5/6 x 5/6. You could write this as (5/6)^2.

Therefore the chance of rolling at least one six on n dice is

1 - (5/6)^n

For the specific case you asked (6 dice) the probability of rolling at least 1 six is: -

1 - (5/6)^6 which is around 66.5%

Hope that helps! Probability isn't even intuitive for me and my degree was Mathematics!