Weather effects

[cuthalion]

Ok, decided to educate myself a little, using this neat dice simulator I found: http://anydice.com/program/9d16

Take away is pretty interesting--you're right that being weary is a little easier on newer characters (lower skill level) vs raising the difficulty of the task, but it's much harder on experienced characters. Taking extremes: a character with 1 success die stands a 21% chance of passing at TN14, and an 8% chance of passing at TN16, but a 17% chance of succeeding while weary at TN14; those odds are 76%, 62%, 53% for a character with 3 success die; with 6 die, they are ~100%, 99%, and 86%.

Probably preaching to the choir here, but find that pretty interesting, just in terms of how you might challenge players differently, depending on skill level, or how you might challenge a group of mixed-level characters. Seems like Weary might level the playing field a bit?

Pls correct me on any dodgy math/interpretations.

[Cawdorthane]

I think those calculations seem a little out as they may not allow for the Gandalf and Eye factors rather than scoring them as 12 or 11 on the Feat die, for example having one Success die generates an almost 10% chance of making a TN 16 (i.e. a 7 in 72 chance) and not 8%, and with only one Success die there is no ill affect to a Character being Weary in making a TN 14 or 16 (the odds remain identical), but they are essentially in the right order of magnitude.

cheers
Mark

[Majestic]

One important thing to realize is that your average party will have a much tougher time with the typical fight/battle, if the entire party is Weary. It can make things extremely challenging for them, so use caution with just imposing it.

So if you're doing it for flavor, and it just affects a few common skill rolls, to emphasize how they're feeling, then cool. But if you drop them into a combat encounter, your players might grow quite frustrated, as it is quite difficult for mid-level characters to succeed on most rolls when they're Weary.

[cuthalion]

I think those calculations seem a little out as they may not allow for the Gandalf and Eye factors rather than scoring them as 12 or 11 on the Feat die, for example having one Success die generates an almost 10% chance of making a TN 16 (i.e. a 7 in 72 chance) and not 8%, and with only one Success die there is no ill affect to a Character being Weary in making a TN 14 or 16 (the odds remain identical), but they are essentially in the right order of magnitude.

Ack---yes, you're right. Will have to see if I can do the math on that at some point, but it sounds like the take aways are roughly legit.

So if you're doing it for flavor, and it just affects a few common skill rolls, to emphasize how they're feeling, then cool. But if you drop them into a combat encounter, your players might grow quite frustrated, as it is quite difficult for mid-level characters to succeed on most rolls when they're Weary.

Good advice--thanks.

[zedturtle]

Ack---yes, you're right. Will have to see if I can do the math on that at some point, but it sounds like the take aways are roughly legit.

I had done this before, but couldn't find the relevant thread, so I went ahead a reran my simulation: viewtopic.php?f=56&t=7363

Hopefully it helps out, and I'm going to try and look at doing some others (maybe the chances of getting a Great success).