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Over at TheOneRing.net a member suggested an alternate version of Frodo's quest where he never reached Rivendell, but headed west out of the Shire to the Grey Havens. The narrative starts out the same, with Frodo, Sam and Pippin starting out for Crickhollow, but it changes when they encounter the Elves. Gildor, upon hearing of the close call with the Black Rider, offers to escort the three hobbits to Mithlond (and he might send one or more of his folk to Bree if he knows that Aragorn is there). At the Grey Havens a Council of Círdan is formed, presided over by Círdan the Shipwright and including the hobbits Frodo, Samwise and Pippin; Gildor Inglorion; several visiting Dwarves of the Blue Mountains with a representative from Erebor (possibly Bifur or Bofur) and his son; Radagast, if he can be found; and Aragorn, if he can be located. A debate results in a similar decision to take the Ring to Mount Doom, but part-way by sea. The poster was trying to estimate how long the sea-voyage would take--he estimated a week or so. That seems wildly optimistic.

Here's the timetable I came up with:

September 23: Frodo, Samwise and Pippin set out from Bag End.
September 24: Encounters with Black Rider and Elves west of Woodhall.
September 25: East Farthing to the Far Downs (Free Lands; Easy), 80 miles, 4 days.
September 29: Cross the Tower Hills (Border Lands; Moderate), 60 miles, 4.5 days (push through to make it 4 days).
October 3: Tower Hills to Mithlond (Free Lands; Easy), 35 miles, 2 days.
October 5: The Council of Círdan. Assume that whatever Fellowship is formed sets out no later than mid-October.
October 15: The Grey Havens to the Gulf of Belfalas (Autumn/Winter; Moderate/Severe), approximately 1800 miles, about 32.25 days sailing day and night or 52.5 days if sailing only by day.

Does this seem about right? The sea journey is tricky because of the transition from autumn to winter. Should we count the start of winter at the beginning of November as the Hobbits seem to do? Under the Númenórean system the year ended about mid-winter and the Stewards' Reckoning (or was it the Kings' Reckoning?) standardized the lengths of the seasons, so winter probably began on November 15 or 16. The voyage could have taken less than a month (approximately 27 days).

And then in Gondor, the Ring is stolen or forcibly taken by someone.

The Ring as a tendancy of drawing attention. In the shire, it's not really a problem (Hobbit are not really a liable target for the ring) but in Gondor, it's not the same. For the majority of his travel, the ring is in the wilderness. Except when it stop, always in the vicinity of one of the three ring (Imladris and Lorien). Going through Gondor seem's not a good idea.

Well, the party need not be taken as far as Pelargir or another city; they could disembark elsewhere on the coast. The fact is that the Ring WAS taken through part of Gondor (North Ithilien). The alternate route might just bring it to the same point from South Ithilien. Of course, they would never encounter Gollum and the quest might fail for that very reason.

I know this is likely not right, but I always viewed the whole story as Eru guiding the Hobbits and the events somewhat.

After the big War of Wrath it was apparent that when gods/angels gets involved havoc ensues!
Half the world got destroyed... Besides if men/elves etc... know the Valar will help, they would stop taking responsibility of their own fate. Even elves should not be to involved, they really needed some really insignificant person to become a hero.

So involvement would have to be subtle.
So I put great emphasis on the "Bilbo was meant to find the ring..." quote.

I assume Eru (or who ever, could even be Morgorth who is pissed Sauron is ruling where he should!) could not directly make people do stuff, but steady their hand, gently push them in the right direction etc... and with a superb "gift of foresight", knows what will roughly happen.


So in short, the ring was heading to Mount Doom no matter what, the path was of no importance, what was important was that someone insignificant saved the world "without" help from divine beings.
That does not mean you can just close your eyes and expect to land at Mt. Doom, but fully putting your heart into it, and it would be a success. Basically the mission is a success when Frodo willingly leaves the fellowship to do it solo.

Maybe you're right, spivo (though probably not about Morgoth; Sauron was promoting his worship). Perhaps Pippin would have lost it at the end and both he and Frodo would have fallen into the Crack of Doom.