Estimating Challenge Ratings

[PencilBoy99]

I don't expect exact mechanical balance in challenges, but I like to have a rough idea of how challenging a situation is going to be for my players. I don't really have an idea of how total advancement / XP points map to Target Numbers, enemy Attributes values, etc. Does anyone have a rule of thumb they use for this?

[Deadmanwalking]

Well, in combat, it depends a lot on the makeup of the PC group. Starting character Parry ratings, just for example, can easily vary between 2 and 13. An 11 point difference is...rather a lot. And because of how Stances work, the high parry can be readily converted into lowered attack TNs by being in Forward stance rather than the other options.

And that's just one of the many stats that are used in combat. Many of which vary by large amounts as well (if not as much as Parry does).

TOR really isn't a game necessarily designed to make characters equal in combat, regarding Journeys and Encounters as equally important. So, a group focused heavily on one of those areas and one focused heavily on combat have very different levels of combat capability, with one with some characters focused on each being somewhere in the middle...which makes what you're asking for very difficult to measure properly.

Starting characters do tend to have real trouble dealing with foes with Great Size (most of which you need a Fell Greatbow or Greatspear or a Greatbow or Greatpear and an axe or mattock user, plus semi-reliable Called Shots to take out...combinations very difficult for starting characters to have), but beyond that it's a little hard to set the barometers for something like this.

[Glorelendil]

I'd worry less about balance and instead make sure, as the LM, that there's always a good way (from a storytelling perspective) for the heroes to "lose" the fight: running away, deus ex machina, captured not killed, etc.