A Darkness in the Marshes - Part Seven

[mica]

Spoiler Alert
The characters are just about to proceed into the Dwimmerhorn but reading ahead I expect them to be heading out with pursuit hot on their heels.

Reading the mechanics of the pursuing host however gives the impression that the orcs are highly unlikely to catch up.

The group will start with 3 points lead due to Travel skill.
The route requires two travel checks.
While the first is for all three characters, with the adjusted journey rules, the second will be just one character rolling. So in order to catch up, the players have to fail 3 out of 4 rolls.

Forced march seems a bit pointless because you are forcing everybody to make double the number of checks for an extra 2 distance, which to me just sounds like you are in fact increasing the chance of getting more failures/spending hope/hazard encounters.

Am I missing something?
If using the adjusted journey rules, does his failure reduce the lead by 1 point per character, in our case 3 points?