One Ring Encounters?

[Glorelendil]

Any stats experts want to model it out? This would require me to do some heavy studying of my old stat textbooks and I don’t have the time right now.

Just had to jump in that on the combat side of things I'm working on a simulation, rather than a statistical model, just because the math seemed too hard.

Maybe if/when I finish my current simulation I'll build an Encounter modeler.

[Robin Smallburrow]

Don't forget also that characters who get great/xtra successes can aid other characters during in the encounter. The purpose behind the Encounter rules, as with Combat &'Journeys is to 'reward' those Fellowships that act like one. Thus the potential for achieving 7+ successes.

And from a LM POV what the pcs achieve depends on what purpose the encounter has for the story

Robin S

[Hermes Serpent]

Probabilities have been discussed a fair bit. Anydice is your friend here.
This is from November 2011 courtesy of Mr Mosse
Probabilities of success according to skill level
0D 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D
TN 10 17% 46% 74% 92% 98% 100% 100%
TN 12 8% 29% 58% 83% 95% 99% 100%
TN 14 8% 17% 42% 70% 89% 97% 99%
TN 16 8% 10% 27% 54% 78% 93% 98%
TN 18 8% 8% 16% 39% 65% 85% 95%
TN 20 8% 8% 11% 26% 50% 74% 90%

Probabilities of success according to skill level when Weary
0D 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D
TN 10 17% 38% 57% 73% 83% 90% 94%
TN 12 8% 25% 44% 60% 73% 83% 89%
TN 14 8% 17% 31% 48% 63% 75% 83%
TN 16 8% 10% 20% 35% 51% 65% 75%
TN 18 8% 8% 15% 26% 40% 54% 66%
TN 20 8% 8% 11% 18% 30% 43% 56%

For the standard TN14 task number 2 levels in a skill is the lowest you need to be reasonably sure of succeeding except if you believe the Hail Mary is going to get the touchdown for the win.

[helghast]

It's unclear whether "exceeding" Tolerance means getting a number of failures equal to Tolerance, or getting a number of failures at least equal to Tolerance +1. The rule book says it both ways.

As for continuing the encounter once you've exceeded Tolerance, whatever that means, that's just table-dressing.

@Stormcrow
In his lastest post jamesrbrown clearly pointed out how Tolerance mechanics work. Why you are still confused about the rules ?

I am also in close contact with the german distributor of TOR (Uhrwerk-Verlag) which recently confirmed the official version, how tolerance works and at which point an encounter is over. If you want, I can post a link to their forums.

[Stormcrow]

In his lastest post jamesrbrown clearly pointed out how Tolerance mechanics work. Why you are still confused about the rules ?

Why are you unable to see the contradiction in the text?

There are a number of odd turns of phrase in the rules that lead me to suspect that English is not Francesco's native language. He may very well have meant this interpretation, but the text actually is contradictory, and there are no examples that clarify the point. I've looked for them.

I am also in close contact with the german distributor of TOR (Uhrwerk-Verlag) which recently confirmed the official version, how tolerance works and at which point an encounter is over. If you want, I can post a link to their forums.

The German distributor is a rules-authority? I'd accept Francesco's confirmation, not a distributor's.

This forum tends to follow a mantra of "the one rule to ring them all": if you don't go along with the most prolific posters, you're a pariah. Ease up.

[Rich H]

Ok, so here are the paragraphs in question from the Loremaster's Guide, p. 52: "When this happens, the Loremaster sets up a Tolerance rating for the encounter, indicating the maximum number of rolls that the companions may collectively fail before their behaviour puts an end to their chances of getting further assistance or cooperation.

Exactly. So if the Tolerance is 3, and you fail three times, you have now put an end to your chances of getting further assistance or cooperation; i.e., after the third failure, the encounter is over.

Interpreting the quote I think you still get one additional failure (beyond the third). For a Tolerance of 3 you can get up to 3 failures before the encounter is effectively over. So 3 lives, then another failure (ie, a fourth in this case) puts an end to the encounter. I do think it needs clarity though as from the above I'd imply that an Encounter could have a starting Tolerance of 0 for an Encounter - ie, just one failure pushes it over the edge, but the rules expressly state that minimum Tolerance is 1. Therefore this means a fellowship can accrue two failures before the encounter is over (when Tolerance is at a minimum rating of 1). That to me doesn't feel right, I therefore think that the implication behind the rules is that if the number of failures equals or succeeds Tolerance then the encounter is over, which is how I run it - or more accurately for each failure I just lower Tolerance by 1. When it gets to zero, game over.

[SirKicley]

Interpreting the quote I think you still get one additional failure (beyond the third). For a Tolerance of 3 you can get up to 3 failures before the encounter is effectively over.

To be fair, Rich, despite Stormcrow's often brusque or curt tone of text, I can see where he's coming from. Taking a look at the above quote - the same logic can be applied in favor of his logic.

"You have three strikes in baseball before you are considered OUT." That doesn't mean you get to have a fourth strike. On the third - you're out. The three strikes occur BEFORE you're out. "You must sell a million copies before you're considered a Platinum-selling artist." This means on the one-millionth CD sold, you are a Platinum seller. Not on the 1,000,001th..... "You have the count of five to be in this house before you're grounded, son!" If I get to five - you're grounded. I'm not going to six.

On the other hand, saying "There are three left turns BEFORE you get to my street" means that the fourth left turn is my street.

Which way is meant? I can't say for certain.

That to me doesn't feel right,....

Well, Stormcrow's argument wasn't about what 'felt' right; it was about the wording, which his logic in his reading is quite valid. Personally I run it as you surmise, but I can see why there is confusion.

or more accurately for each failure I just lower Tolerance by 1. When it gets to zero, game over.

If you start at 3 and lower it by 1 with each failure, you're still ending it after three failures (not the fourth). Start at 3. Fail. Drops to 2. Fail. Drops to 1. Fail. Drops to zero. Over. That equals three fails - not exceeds three fails.

So now we're all really confused.


Robert

[Rich H]

To be fair, Rich, despite Stormcrow's often brusque or curt tone of text, I can see where he's coming from. Taking a look at the above quote - the same logic can be applied in favor of his logic.

I never disagreed with Stormcrow. My comment, taken in it's entirety, actually agrees with him - if I understand him correctly. In my post I state things like how the rules can be interpreted, what can be inferred, things not feeling right, and what I think the rules are trying to say. All that's agreeing with what Stormcrow says that the rules aren't clear, isn't it?

[bert1000]

Probabilities have been discussed a fair bit. Anydice is your friend here.
This is from November 2011 courtesy of Mr Mosse
Probabilities of success according to skill level
0D 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D
TN 10 17% 46% 74% 92% 98% 100% 100%
TN 12 8% 29% 58% 83% 95% 99% 100%
TN 14 8% 17% 42% 70% 89% 97% 99%
TN 16 8% 10% 27% 54% 78% 93% 98%
TN 18 8% 8% 16% 39% 65% 85% 95%
TN 20 8% 8% 11% 26% 50% 74% 90%

Probabilities of success according to skill level when Weary
0D 1D 2D 3D 4D 5D 6D
TN 10 17% 38% 57% 73% 83% 90% 94%
TN 12 8% 25% 44% 60% 73% 83% 89%
TN 14 8% 17% 31% 48% 63% 75% 83%
TN 16 8% 10% 20% 35% 51% 65% 75%
TN 18 8% 8% 15% 26% 40% 54% 66%
TN 20 8% 8% 11% 18% 30% 43% 56%

For the standard TN14 task number 2 levels in a skill is the lowest you need to be reasonably sure of succeeding except if you believe the Hail Mary is going to get the touchdown for the win.

I hadn't seen this. Very useful, thanks!

The probabilities I'm looking for are a little more complex though. These are one attempt against a TN. What I am looking for is what is the probability of X successes before Y failures. It's pretty complicated because you can have auto success with a roll of the d12 and can accumulate more than one success on a single attempt with 6s on a d6.

If we didn't have the special symbols, then I think we could take these probabilities and use them with the link to the 4e D&D skill challenge math I posted earlier.

For instance 2d6 and TN14 is 42% chance of a success per attempt. If there were no special symbols, then there is a roughly 9% chance of getting 4 successes before 2 failures. With the special symbols this will be higher. But how much higher?

[Hermes Serpent]

Those probability numbers do, I believe, take into account the eye and gandalf runes. However you are correct in that they are for a single roll only. You can easily apply them to a D&D like skill challenge by noting the chance of failure and working it from that.