bert1000 wrote:I'm not talking about tailoring challenges to a particular party. I'm talking about for example having a sense for the basic odds of success when a party that heavily invested in social skills goes up against a challenge I think is suppose to be moderately hard.
For an Encounter/Prolonged Action knowing the TN is not enough. The difficultly is also influenced by X Successes before Y Failures and the values of X and Y.
I think this is going to be very difficult to get at Bert as, like you say, the math is difficult to get at and there are so many moving parts that can affect it - eg, great/extraordinary successes on one roll, use of Hope, invocation of traits, etc.
Just some thoughts, not trying to make any real point with the following but taking a look through TfW, we have the following Encounters along with Tolerance (and potential variances)...
Of Leaves...
Tolerance: Valour + 1 (per hobbit in party) + 3 (due to Dodi being desperate for help) + highest Standing (of any hobbit)
Success level follow the norm of 0-1, 2-3, 4-6, and 7+, each level generally increases the Treasure he's willing to reward the PCs but higher tiers get additional rewards.
Kinstrife...
Tolerance: Valour + 1 (if a Beorning/Woodman is spokesperson) - 1 (if there are any elves/dwarves in group) + highest Standing (of any Beorning)
Success level follow a different scale of 0-1, 2-4, 5-7, and 8+, with level rewards ranging from "find my kinsmens killer if you ever want to set foot in my lands again" to Beorn extending his blessing.
There's also an additional Encounter at Stonyford...
Tolerance: Valour + 1 (if a Beorning/Woodman is spokesperson) - 1 (if there are no Beornings/Woodmen in the fellowship) + 1 (if PCs declare they are on a mission for Beorn, or 2 if it's with his blessing) + highest Standing (of any Beorning)
Success level follow a different scale of 0-1, 2-4, 5+, each level increases the information and cooperation the villagers will extend to the party.
And a judgement at the Carrock...
Tolerance: Wisdom +
n (based upon Oderic's actions) + highest Standing (of any Beorning)
Success level follow a different scale of 0-2, 3-5, 6+, each level lessens Oderic's punishment.
I've not listed them all and there are others in the book but they don't follow the Encounters format outlined within the introductory section so I haven't listed them here.
This still doesn't help clarify the maths but based upon those encounters we have interactions whose success tiers number 3 or 4 ranging from 0 (for the lowest tier) to 5 - 8 successes in total (for the upper tier).
For a TN of 14 with a skill rating of 3, the probability of success is 70%. Now some of these are going to garner great or extraordinary success results and PCs can also use Hope to boost those near misses and change them into successes if they think the Encounter is of a critical nature.
I guess what I'm trying to suggest is that the maths isn't easy to get to, so proving what you're already concerned about. Personally, as 0 - 1 success gets the bare minimum to continue the adventure and Tolerance is going to be around 3 most of the time then I think there's opportunity for hitting those tiers in the mid range some of the time. It's the Tolerance that is the key though and this can swing greatly depending on the gaming group. That to me is the key variable so perhaps we should focus on that, fixing/assessing the difficulty of an Encounter based upon it:
Subject of Encounter is... Chance of > Minimum Success... Tolerance Rating should be...
Hostile... ... .... Very Low... ... ... 1
Suspicious... ... ... Low... ... ... 2 - 3
Neutral... ... ... Average... ... ... 4 - 5
Amicable... ... ... High... ... ... 6 - 7
Friendly... ... ... Very High... ... ... 8+
[Apologies for crappy formatting of the above table]
... Those are just finger in the air estimates but it would mean that starting and developing characters would rarely reach the higher success tiers as they wouldn't be able to get high Tolerances due to low Valour/Wisdom and Standing (where applicable). I think this is an intent of the design though.